bubbleinfo.com

Well, we're officially in May now. Let's see if this starts getting really nasty...

its july 7,2007 --the sky is falling yea right -where is the crash the demorats have been saying for the past 5 years --damn give it a rest

Lets see California Home Sales transactions have fallen below the levels of the early 1990's, we are seeing NOD's and NOT's at or above the worst levels of the 90's downturn and still growing, 93 subprime lenders have gone belly up, and this debacle is shaking the foundation of some of the most prestigious investment banks on wall street

"Barron's says that the banks, brokerages and hedge funds that so eagerly gobbled up collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) could face losses of more than $100B in coming years."

And we are only getting started

Hey Jim, that's the chart I marked up. I have Ivy's report. Let me know if you want any other charts. I put one on my website that is not marked up. Go to my homepage.

Hey, did you hear Mozilo said that 2/3 of their 2/28 and 3/27 loans from 2005-2006 have refinanced? Half went into prime, and the rest are split between another 2/28 or 3/27 and subprime fixed.

Those must be national numbers. I doubt people in San Diego who bought or refid in 2005-2006 had the equity to refinance this year.

I stole it from you - hope you don't mind (?)

I don't know how they could refinance with the 2-3 year prepayment penalties....

Uh, is this national?

Bowers279 is eating crow now.

Yes national chart

its july 7,2007 --the sky is falling yea right -where is the crash the demorats have been saying for the past 5 years --damn give it a rest
July 7, 2007 | bowers279
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He's REALLY eating crow NOW...What the subs did to the DOW in 30 days...wow

Bowers279 is like the guy passing the 56th floor after jumping off the Empire State Bldg "So far, so good". Considering 30 days for delinquency and at least another 120 days for the foreclosure process, the record foreclosures today were March resets. October's reset volume is twice March's and the credit markets are already seizing up. It doesn't take Nostradamus to see what's going to happen when we hit the pavement.

this chart tells it all, disaster is on its way

We are Ska-rewed

This is bigger than you think. Much much bigger.

OK,let's look at the argument here: the forced liquidation of this inventory will bring a collapse of prices to the rest of the market. Sorry, this is not supported by either the historical evidence of the late '80's early 90's when another forced liquidation, the defense industry layoffs and resulting impact on So Cal RE, was short lived or by the current data on the Resets here: http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/04/fannie-mae-on-2007-arm-resets.html
Look at the > 80% LTV's with > 620 FICO's representing the lion's share. The remaining is the small minority. With the FED's help these folks will easily re-fi out. Wall Street banks like Citi burp billions of losses and it represents <1% of capital. Not the end of the world. Smart money is buying these banks now. Check out MBI, a blue chip in the toilet but very little exposure to Subprime. Just being painted with the same broad brush here. Soon to be back at 50+. Cash now means big profits later.

Not so fast, John California. MBI is actually slated to go insolvent in Q2 of 2008 according to Pershing Square's William Ackman.

Looks like its hitting everyone a little harder than we like.

We'll see.

"Moody's Investors Service, Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's were on a pre-Christmas warnings and downgrade spree in recent weeks, highlighting concerns about capital shortfalls for bond insurers, including the market's two largest, MBIA (MBI - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and Ambac Financial Group (ABK - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr)."

"James Bianco of Bianco Research notes that the municipal bond market has been slow to react to warnings about the guarantors. The market has also failed to take note that Fitch put 173,022 bond issues on credit watch for a downgrade, mostly municipal bonds. He says this could mean "another big leg down" for the credit markets."

"Fitch Ratings late last week warned the guarantors they have four to six weeks to raise $1 billion before facing a possible downgrade. MBIA and Ambac have lost around 72% of their value from their pre-credit crunch highs this spring."

Interesting thread to say the least. Every time somebody points out how the sky is not falling and why they get clobbered within a month.

This is THE quintessential chart of the housing bubble. Prices will fall or be flat for a decade. WOW.

John in Cali,

Nice call on MBI and Shittibank...... NOT!

By smart money you must mean "Shortbus riders!"

The equity traders are always the last to figure it out.

republicans are still waiting on the demorat recession and market crash