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Friday, January 5, 2007 at 08:47AM

The Jim Ratio - 2007

The Jim ratio is simply the number of active listings, divided by the number of pending listings.

It's a good gauge of the "health" of the marketplace.  In the 2000-2004 time frame, the ratio was around 2:1, with the hottest times as low as 1:1. 

Score Guide

under 3           Hot market

3-4                    Regular market

4-5                   Market in trouble

5-7                   Too many choices, buyers are winning

7+                     Freefall

                                                                                             Jim Ratio

Jan 1           1,217 Actives/218 Pendings                 5.58

Jan 10       1,234 Actives/203 Pendings                6.08

Jan 18        1,306 Actives/220 Pendings               5.94

Jan 26       1,324 Actives/231 Pendings                5.73

Feb 6         1,279 Actives/265 Pendings                4.83

Feb 14      1,283 Actives/286 Pendings                4.48

Feb 20      1,300 Actives/310 Pendings               4.19

Feb 26      1,301 Actives/326 Pendings                3.99

Mar 7       1,299 Actives/341 Pendings                 3.81

Mar 21    1,255 Actives/328 Pendings                 3.82

Mar 27    1,274 Actives/339 Pendings                3.76

Apr 2       1,380 Actives/343 Pendings                4.02

Apr 14    1,431 Actives/336 Pendings                 4.26

Apr 20   1,465 Actives/342 Pendings                4.28

Apr 27   1,506 Actives/323 Pendings                 4.66

May 3    1,488 Actives/291 Pendings                  5.11

May12   1,518 Actives/346 Pendings                 4.39

May 21  1,547 Actives/339 Pendings                 4.56

May 31  1,580 Actives/312 Pendings                 5.06

June 11  1,660 Actives/282 Pendings                5.89

June 22  1,714 Actives/283 Pendings               6.06

June 30  1,699 Actives/278 Pendings               6.11

July 11    1,730 Actives/301 Pendings              5.75

July 22   1,711 Actives/293 Pendings               5.84

July 29  1,704 Actives/297 Pendings               5.74

Aug 3      1,725 Actives/261 Pendings               6.61

Aug 17    1,792 Actives/225 Pendings              7.96

Aug 25   1,804 Actives/218 Pendings              8.28

Sep 2      1,804 Actives/210 Pendings              8.59

Sep 11    1,790 Actives/207 Pendings              8.65

Sep 22   1,779 Actives/204 Pendings              8.72

Oct 5      1,769 Actives/210 Pendings              8.42

Oct 11    1,776 Actives/202 Pendings             8.79

Oct 25   1,761 Actives/205 Pendings             8.59

Nov 7    1,711 Actives/215 Pendings              7.96

Nov 20  1,693 Actives/208 Pendings            8.14

Dec 6      1,640 Actives/205 Pendings           8.00

Jam 6     1,547 Actives/184 Pendings            8.41

The market conditions are different in each area, and, as a result, here are the numbers per zip code:

5/12/07

92008    92 Actives/26 Pendings                        3.53

92009   176 Actives/70 Pendings                      2.51

92010     54 Actives/19 Pendings                       2.84

92011    113 Actives/37 Pendings                      3.05

92054   226 Actives/46 Pendings                     4.91

92056   233 Actives/43 Pendings                     5.41

92057   354 Actives/67 Pendings                     5.28

92084   270 Actives/38 Pendings                     7.10

The first four are Carlsbad, the next three are Oceanside, and 92084 is North Vista.  The Carlsbad zips disect the town into quadrants.

I need to format this better, but for now....

May 21

92008     99 Actives/23 Pendings          4.30

92009    184 Actives/63 Pendings         2.92

92010      52 Actives/19 Pendings          2.73

92011     117 Actives/36 Pendings         3.25

92054    223 Actives/45 Pendings        4.96

92056     249 Actives/49 Pendings       5.08

92057     359 Actives/66 Pendings        5.44

92084    264 Actives/38 Pendings        6.95 

May 31st:

92008    96 Actives/19 Pendings           5.05

92009   188 Actives/64 Pendings         2.94

92010     57 Actives/18 Pendings          3.17

92011    122 Actives/33 Pendings         3.70

92054   228 Actives/36 Pendings        6.33

92056   250 Actives/51 Pendings        4.90

92057   373 Actives/56 Pendings        6.66

92084  266 Actives/35 Pendings        7.60

June 11

92008   102 Actives/15 Pendings        6.80

92009   208 Actives/54 Pendings       3.85

92010    62 Actives/15 Pendings          4.13

92011   127 Actives/30 Pendings        4.23

92054  232 Actives/34 Pendings        6.82

92056  261 Actives/50 Pendings         5.22

92057  388 Actives/57 Pendings         6.81

92084  280 Actives/27 Pendings       10.37

June 22

92008  107 Actives/15 Pendings         7.13

92009  209 Actives/59 Pendings        3.54

92010    65 Actives/15 Pendings          4.33

92011   131 Actives/28 Pendings         4.68

92054  237 Actives/35 Pendings        6.77

92056  277 Actives/55 Pendings        5.04

92057  398 Actives/51 Pendings         7.80

92084  290 Actives/25 Pendings        11.60

June 30

92008   108 Actives/17 Pendings       6.35

92009   213 Actives/50 Pendings       4.26

92010   64 Actives/ 16 Pendings         4.00

92011    130 Actives/32 Pendings       4.06

92054   232 Actives/31 Pendings       7.48

92056   273 Actives/50 Pendings      5.46

92057   396 Actives/54 Pendings      7.33

92084   283 Actives/28 Pendings     10.11

July 11

92008   105 Actives/23 Pendings        4.57

92009   209 Actives/54 Pendings       3.87

92010     70 Actives/16 Pendings         4.38

92011    128 Actives/30 Pendings        4.27

92054   240 Actives/28 Pendings       8.57

92056   296 Actives/54 Pendings       5.48

92057   402 Actives/65 Pendings       6.18

92084   280 Actives/31 Pendings       9.03

July 22

92008   102 Actives/25 Pendings       4.08

92009   203 Actives/51 Pendings       3.98

92010     68 Actives/17 Pendings        4.00

92011   131 Actives/30 Pendings        4.37

92054  233 Actives/27 Pendings        8.63

92056  286 Actives/54 Pendings       5.30

92057  400 Actives/62 Pendings      6.45

92084  288 Actives/27 Pendings      10.67

July 29

92008   103 Actives/25 Pendings      4.12

92009   194 Actives/57 Pendings      3.40

92010     68 Actives/15 Pendings       4.53

92011   128 Actives/27 Pendings       4.74

92054  229 Actives/30 Pendings      7.63

92056  291 Actives/56 Pendings       5.20

92057  400 Actives/63 Pendings     6.35

92084  291 Actives/24 Pendings    12.13

August 3

92008   110 Actives/21 Pendings     5.23

92009   199 Actives/49 Pendings    4.06

92010     63 Actives/14 Pendings     4.50

92011     128 Actives/27 Pendings   4.74

92054    238 Actives/29 Pendings   8.21

92056    297 Actives/43 Pendings   6.91

92057    403 Actives/49 Pendings  8.22

92084    287 Actives/29 Pendings  9.90

August 17

92008    111 Actives/19 Pendings   5.84

92009   203 Actives/40 Pendings  5.08

92010     66 Actives/11 Pendings     6.00

92011    124 Actives/28 Pendings   4.43

92054   260 Actives/22 Pendings  11.82

92056   321 Actives/30 Pendings   10.70

92057   418 Actives/51 Pendings     8.20

92084   289 Actives/24 Pendings  12.04

August 25

92008   108 Actives/18 Pendings     6.00

92009   209 Actives/37 Pendings    5.65

92010     70 Actives/12 Pendings     5.83

92011    130 Actives/24 Pendings   5.42

92054   268 Actives/24 Pendings  11.17

92056   316 Actives/34 Pendings    9.29

92057   419 Actives/46 Pendings     9.11

92084   284 Actives/23 Pendings  12.35

Sep 2

92008   120 Actives/16 Pendings   7.50

92009   216 Actives/30 Pendings  7.20

92010     67 Actives/13 Pendings   5.15

92011   134 Actives/21 Pendings   6.38

92054  266 Actives/20 Pendings  13.30

92056   302 Actives/36 Pendings  8.39

92057   427 Actives/52 Pendings  8.21

92084   272 Actives/22 Pendings  12.36

Sept. 11

92008   116 Actives/12 Pendings    9.67

92009   214 Actives/26 Pendings   8.23

92010     64 Actives/19 Pendings    3.37

92011    141 Actives/19 Pendings   7.42

92054   269 Actives/19 Pendings   14.16

92056   309 Actives/36 Pendings   8.58

92057   413 Actives/56 Pendings   7.38

92084   265 Actives/20 Pendings  13.25

Sep 22

92008   117 Actives/10 Pendings   11.70

92009   217 Actives/28 Pendings    7.75

92010     60 Actives/17 Pendings     3.53

92011   144 Actives/22 Pendings    6.55

92054  275 Actives/20 Pendings   13.75

92056   297 Actives/30 Pendings    9.90

92057   400 Actives/54 Pendings  7.41

92084   269 Actives/23 Pendings   11.70

Oct 5

92008    120 Actives/10 Pendings    12.00

92009    223 Actives/34 Pendings     6.56

92010     57 Actives/18 Pendings       3.17

92011     145 Actives/16 Pendings     9.06

92054    253 Actives/33 Pendings     7.67

92056    291 Actives/28 Pendings    10.39

92057    399 Actives/50 Pendings    7.98

92084    281 Actives/21 Pendings    13.38

Oct 11

92008   120 Actives/10 Pendings     12.0

92009   227 Actives/34 Pendings     6.68

92010   57 Actives/17 Pendings         3.35

92011  147 Actives/16 Pendings        9.19

92054  252 Actives/32 Pendings      7.88

92056  290 Actives/31 Pendings      9.35

92057  399 Actives/44 Pendings     9.07

92084  284 Actives/18 Pendings    15.78

Oct 25

92008  116 Actives/12 Pendings     9.67

92009  217 Actives/40 Pendings   5.43

92010    58 Actives/10 Pendings    5.80

92011  145 Actives/14 Pendings   10.36

92054  245 Actives/27 Pendings  9.07

92056  288 Actives/26 Pendings  11.07

92057  395 Actives/57 Pendings  6.93

92084  297 Actives/19 Pendings  15.63

Nov 7

92008   110 Actives/9 Pendings   12.22

92009   201 Actives/28 Pendings 7.18

92010   55 Actives/15 Pendings    3.67

92011   138 Actives/26 Pendings  5.31

92054  238 Actives/26 Pendings  9.15

92056  281 Actives/30 Pendings   9.37

92057   399 Actives/56 Pendings  7.13

92084   289 Actives/25 Pendings  11.56

Nov 20

92008  112 Actives/8 Pendings     14.00

92009  199 Actives/29 Pendings    6.86

92010    50 Actives/17 Pendings    2.94

92011    142 Actives/12 Pendings  11.83

92054  241 Actives/28 Pendings    8.61

92056  278 Actives/26 Pendings   10.69

92057  394 Actives/59 Pendings   6.68

92084  277 Actives/29 Pendings   9.55

Dec 6

92008  108 Actives/8 Pendings   13.50

92009  199 Actives/26 Pendings 7.65

92010  48 Actives/13 Pendings   3.69

92011  135 Actives/11 Pendings  12.27

92054  245 Actives/28 Pendings 8.75

92056  256 Actives/36 Pendings  7.11

92057  378 Actives/59 Pendings  6.41

92084  271 Actives/24 Pendings  11.29

Jan 6

92008   91 Actives/15 Pendings     6.07

92009   196 Actives/24 Pendings  8.17

92010     47 Actives/7 Pendings     6.71

92011   118 Actives/14 Pendings   8.43

92054 248 Actives/23 Pendings  10.78

92056 244 Actives/30 Pendings  8.13

92057  360 Actives/51 Pendings  8.19

92084  243 Actives/20 Pendings  12.15

Posted on Friday, January 5, 2007 at 08:47AM by Registered CommenterJim the Realtor | Comments7 Comments | References1 Reference

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    Response: Colomarine 29 post
    at Colomarine blog on June 9, 2007
    all about Colomarine and top news

Reader Comments (7)

What I'm seeing is that there is a lot of interest (pending sales) in buying a house, but that this is not translating into actual sales. In other words, actual sales are nearly dead for all of San Diego County and the ones that are occuring are doing so at ever lower Price-to-Square foot values.

I've checked this now at two places (melissadata.com) and sandiego.houserebate.com. Houserebate.com shows lots of interest (Pendings) in buying houses, but very little to speak of in terms of actual sales. I suspect that what's happening now is that while borrowers want to borrow and lenders want to lend, the investors that fund these 'deals' simply do not want to lose their money hand-over-fist, so no deals occur.

And while Melissa data has yet to post the March numbers for the first week of March, I am very confident that 'actual sales' will be way off (courtesy of the subprime lender implosion)..

March 9, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterbubble_watcher
If you redo this ratio in terms of 'actual sales'.. and I mean 'normal sales' and not count the foreclosure sales that become REOs like DataQuick does, then I think you will find and see a much 'different' picture for the San Diego real estate market.

March 9, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterbubble_watcher
I'm counting only the MLS sales which don't include trustee/foreclosure sales, so I'd say it's the count of "normal" action. I'm not going through the tax rolls to pick up every sale either, so if you see DQ report higher sales than I do, that's another reason.
March 9, 2007 | Registered CommenterJim the Realtor
What is the percentage of foreclosure sales in N. San Diego? Also, do you have an update? Thanks for all your hard work!
April 10, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterWaiting to Buy - LAX

Dont you mean SW

May 13, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterjp

I'll call it SE for 92009, though SW/92011 is right there too. Thanks for the correction!

May 15, 2007 | Registered CommenterJim the Realtor

Holy cow, look at those September stats. Even half of Carlsbad is now officially in freefall territory.

September 10, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterSimone

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