Wednesday, September 26, 2007 at 09:42AM
ARM-Reset Chart, Updated
From Mathew Padilla, OC Register:
"Much press has been given to the vague looming threat posed by adjustable subprime loans. The fear is that foreclosures, already rising quickly nationwide, will spike even higher as low introductory rates end on millions of mortgages. Robert Lacoursiere, an analyst with Bank of America, back in June wrote a report that documented the threat, writing that “$515 billion of ARMs are scheduled to reset in ‘07, followed by approximately $680 billion in ‘08. Furthermore, of these ARMs, we estimate that subprime loans consist of $400 billion (78%) in ‘07 and $500 billion (73%) in ‘08.”
I recently got an update.
This graph from Lacoursiere’s recent update shows that reset dates on loans spread out evenly over 2008. In his earlier report, they spiked around March of 2008 and then tapered off dramatically.
I didn’t get a chance to speak with him about the trend. My guess is that some folks were able to refinance before investors cut off credit on riskier loans. Such borrowers have pushed back judgment day to later in the year (or to other years).
However, just eyeballing the chart also suggests that perhaps there are fewer loans coming due next year. Initially, he said there were $680 billion in loans coming due but I’m guessing the number has fallen significantly. I tried to get new numbers from Lacoursiere but he’s been swamped this week. If they come later, I’ll update this post."
Tuesday, August 28, 2007 at 01:54PM
ARM-Reset Chart, BofA
BofA Analyst: Mortgage correction just 'tip of the iceberg'
Robert Lacoursiere, an analyst with Bank of America, is not drinking any corporate Kool Aid. In a recent report, he said losses on home loans will peak in the second half of 2008.
He starts with this:
• Mortgage borrowers are in a weaker position than in the last cycle with less equity cushion, higher levels of income devoted to debt servicing and facing higher rates in the upcoming waves of rate resets.
• Meanwhile softening housing market makes repayment by sales an unlikely option, setting the stage for loss severities last seen in the early ‘90s.
He delves deeper into the reset issue:
According to BofA’s estimates, approximately $515 billion of ARMs are scheduled to reset in ’07, followed by approximately $680 billion in ’08. Furthermore, of these ARMs, we estimate that subprime loans consist of $400 billion (78%) in ’07 and $500 billion (73%) in ’08.
Recently released data from Fannie Mae (FNM) confirms our view that ARM resets will lead to higher rates of credit deterioration, particularly for 2/28 subprime ARMs. ... Of the subprime ARMs that reset in 2006, 76% of borrowers were able to successfully pay off their loan (either through refinancing or selling their home). However, of the borrowers that did not pay off their loan 50% went bad (delinquent, in foreclosure or REO). According to FNM, subprime ARM borrowers facing resets in ’06 on average faced a 250 bps (2.5 percentage points) contract rate increase. Meanwhile, though the data is only as of March ’07, of all the subprime ARMs scheduled to reset in ‘07, already 18% have gone bad (delinquent, in foreclosure or REO) or 29% of loans that have not been paid off. As a larger number of loans will hit the reset throughout the rest of the year and ’08, and due to less favorable market conditions (higher rates, tightened underwriting standards, already stretched borrowers, and home price stagnation) the delinquency ratio will only increase from the 1Q07 level.
Thanks to Bank of America and CalculatedRisk
Thursday, March 15, 2007 at 10:31AM
ARM Reset Schedule
Thanks to Credit Suisee for the chart, and dfw_renter for pointing it out.
Friday, January 5, 2007 at 08:47AM
The Jim Ratio - 2007
The Jim ratio is simply the number of active listings, divided by the number of pending listings.
It's a good gauge of the "health" of the marketplace. In the 2000-2004 time frame, the ratio was around 2:1, with the hottest times as low as 1:1.
Score Guide
under 3 Hot market
3-4 Regular market
4-5 Market in trouble
5-7 Too many choices, buyers are winning
7+ Freefall
Jim Ratio
Jan 1 1,217 Actives/218 Pendings 5.58
Jan 10 1,234 Actives/203 Pendings 6.08
Jan 18 1,306 Actives/220 Pendings 5.94
Jan 26 1,324 Actives/231 Pendings 5.73
Feb 6 1,279 Actives/265 Pendings 4.83
Feb 14 1,283 Actives/286 Pendings 4.48
Feb 20 1,300 Actives/310 Pendings 4.19
Feb 26 1,301 Actives/326 Pendings 3.99
Mar 7 1,299 Actives/341 Pendings 3.81
Mar 21 1,255 Actives/328 Pendings 3.82
Mar 27 1,274 Actives/339 Pendings 3.76
Apr 2 1,380 Actives/343 Pendings 4.02
Apr 14 1,431 Actives/336 Pendings 4.26
Apr 20 1,465 Actives/342 Pendings 4.28
Apr 27 1,506 Actives/323 Pendings 4.66
May 3 1,488 Actives/291 Pendings 5.11
May12 1,518 Actives/346 Pendings 4.39
May 21 1,547 Actives/339 Pendings 4.56
May 31 1,580 Actives/312 Pendings 5.06
June 11 1,660 Actives/282 Pendings 5.89
June 22 1,714 Actives/283 Pendings 6.06
June 30 1,699 Actives/278 Pendings 6.11
July 11 1,730 Actives/301 Pendings 5.75
July 22 1,711 Actives/293 Pendings 5.84
July 29 1,704 Actives/297 Pendings 5.74
Aug 3 1,725 Actives/261 Pendings 6.61
Aug 17 1,792 Actives/225 Pendings 7.96
Aug 25 1,804 Actives/218 Pendings 8.28
Sep 2 1,804 Actives/210 Pendings 8.59
Sep 11 1,790 Actives/207 Pendings 8.65
Sep 22 1,779 Actives/204 Pendings 8.72
Oct 5 1,769 Actives/210 Pendings 8.42
Oct 11 1,776 Actives/202 Pendings 8.79
Oct 25 1,761 Actives/205 Pendings 8.59
Nov 7 1,711 Actives/215 Pendings 7.96
Nov 20 1,693 Actives/208 Pendings 8.14
Dec 6 1,640 Actives/205 Pendings 8.00
Jam 6 1,547 Actives/184 Pendings 8.41
The market conditions are different in each area, and, as a result, here are the numbers per zip code:
5/12/07
92008 92 Actives/26 Pendings 3.53
92009 176 Actives/70 Pendings 2.51
92010 54 Actives/19 Pendings 2.84
92011 113 Actives/37 Pendings 3.05
92054 226 Actives/46 Pendings 4.91
92056 233 Actives/43 Pendings 5.41
92057 354 Actives/67 Pendings 5.28
92084 270 Actives/38 Pendings 7.10
The first four are Carlsbad, the next three are Oceanside, and 92084 is North Vista. The Carlsbad zips disect the town into quadrants.
I need to format this better, but for now....
May 21
92008 99 Actives/23 Pendings 4.30
92009 184 Actives/63 Pendings 2.92
92010 52 Actives/19 Pendings 2.73
92011 117 Actives/36 Pendings 3.25
92054 223 Actives/45 Pendings 4.96
92056 249 Actives/49 Pendings 5.08
92057 359 Actives/66 Pendings 5.44
92084 264 Actives/38 Pendings 6.95
May 31st:
92008 96 Actives/19 Pendings 5.05
92009 188 Actives/64 Pendings 2.94
92010 57 Actives/18 Pendings 3.17
92011 122 Actives/33 Pendings 3.70
92054 228 Actives/36 Pendings 6.33
92056 250 Actives/51 Pendings 4.90
92057 373 Actives/56 Pendings 6.66
92084 266 Actives/35 Pendings 7.60
June 11
92008 102 Actives/15 Pendings 6.80
92009 208 Actives/54 Pendings 3.85
92010 62 Actives/15 Pendings 4.13
92011 127 Actives/30 Pendings 4.23
92054 232 Actives/34 Pendings 6.82
92056 261 Actives/50 Pendings 5.22
92057 388 Actives/57 Pendings 6.81
92084 280 Actives/27 Pendings 10.37
June 22
92008 107 Actives/15 Pendings 7.13
92009 209 Actives/59 Pendings 3.54
92010 65 Actives/15 Pendings 4.33
92011 131 Actives/28 Pendings 4.68
92054 237 Actives/35 Pendings 6.77
92056 277 Actives/55 Pendings 5.04
92057 398 Actives/51 Pendings 7.80
92084 290 Actives/25 Pendings 11.60
June 30
92008 108 Actives/17 Pendings 6.35
92009 213 Actives/50 Pendings 4.26
92010 64 Actives/ 16 Pendings 4.00
92011 130 Actives/32 Pendings 4.06
92054 232 Actives/31 Pendings 7.48
92056 273 Actives/50 Pendings 5.46
92057 396 Actives/54 Pendings 7.33
92084 283 Actives/28 Pendings 10.11
July 11
92008 105 Actives/23 Pendings 4.57
92009 209 Actives/54 Pendings 3.87
92010 70 Actives/16 Pendings 4.38
92011 128 Actives/30 Pendings 4.27
92054 240 Actives/28 Pendings 8.57
92056 296 Actives/54 Pendings 5.48
92057 402 Actives/65 Pendings 6.18
92084 280 Actives/31 Pendings 9.03
July 22
92008 102 Actives/25 Pendings 4.08
92009 203 Actives/51 Pendings 3.98
92010 68 Actives/17 Pendings 4.00
92011 131 Actives/30 Pendings 4.37
92054 233 Actives/27 Pendings 8.63
92056 286 Actives/54 Pendings 5.30
92057 400 Actives/62 Pendings 6.45
92084 288 Actives/27 Pendings 10.67
July 29
92008 103 Actives/25 Pendings 4.12
92009 194 Actives/57 Pendings 3.40
92010 68 Actives/15 Pendings 4.53
92011 128 Actives/27 Pendings 4.74
92054 229 Actives/30 Pendings 7.63
92056 291 Actives/56 Pendings 5.20
92057 400 Actives/63 Pendings 6.35
92084 291 Actives/24 Pendings 12.13
August 3
92008 110 Actives/21 Pendings 5.23
92009 199 Actives/49 Pendings 4.06
92010 63 Actives/14 Pendings 4.50
92011 128 Actives/27 Pendings 4.74
92054 238 Actives/29 Pendings 8.21
92056 297 Actives/43 Pendings 6.91
92057 403 Actives/49 Pendings 8.22
92084 287 Actives/29 Pendings 9.90
August 17
92008 111 Actives/19 Pendings 5.84
92009 203 Actives/40 Pendings 5.08
92010 66 Actives/11 Pendings 6.00
92011 124 Actives/28 Pendings 4.43
92054 260 Actives/22 Pendings 11.82
92056 321 Actives/30 Pendings 10.70
92057 418 Actives/51 Pendings 8.20
92084 289 Actives/24 Pendings 12.04
August 25
92008 108 Actives/18 Pendings 6.00
92009 209 Actives/37 Pendings 5.65
92010 70 Actives/12 Pendings 5.83
92011 130 Actives/24 Pendings 5.42
92054 268 Actives/24 Pendings 11.17
92056 316 Actives/34 Pendings 9.29
92057 419 Actives/46 Pendings 9.11
92084 284 Actives/23 Pendings 12.35
Sep 2
92008 120 Actives/16 Pendings 7.50
92009 216 Actives/30 Pendings 7.20
92010 67 Actives/13 Pendings 5.15
92011 134 Actives/21 Pendings 6.38
92054 266 Actives/20 Pendings 13.30
92056 302 Actives/36 Pendings 8.39
92057 427 Actives/52 Pendings 8.21
92084 272 Actives/22 Pendings 12.36
Sept. 11
92008 116 Actives/12 Pendings 9.67
92009 214 Actives/26 Pendings 8.23
92010 64 Actives/19 Pendings 3.37
92011 141 Actives/19 Pendings 7.42
92054 269 Actives/19 Pendings 14.16
92056 309 Actives/36 Pendings 8.58
92057 413 Actives/56 Pendings 7.38
92084 265 Actives/20 Pendings 13.25
Sep 22
92008 117 Actives/10 Pendings 11.70
92009 217 Actives/28 Pendings 7.75
92010 60 Actives/17 Pendings 3.53
92011 144 Actives/22 Pendings 6.55
92054 275 Actives/20 Pendings 13.75
92056 297 Actives/30 Pendings 9.90
92057 400 Actives/54 Pendings 7.41
92084 269 Actives/23 Pendings 11.70
Oct 5
92008 120 Actives/10 Pendings 12.00
92009 223 Actives/34 Pendings 6.56
92010 57 Actives/18 Pendings 3.17
92011 145 Actives/16 Pendings 9.06
92054 253 Actives/33 Pendings 7.67
92056 291 Actives/28 Pendings 10.39
92057 399 Actives/50 Pendings 7.98
92084 281 Actives/21 Pendings 13.38
Oct 11
92008 120 Actives/10 Pendings 12.0
92009 227 Actives/34 Pendings 6.68
92010 57 Actives/17 Pendings 3.35
92011 147 Actives/16 Pendings 9.19
92054 252 Actives/32 Pendings 7.88
92056 290 Actives/31 Pendings 9.35
92057 399 Actives/44 Pendings 9.07
92084 284 Actives/18 Pendings 15.78
Oct 25
92008 116 Actives/12 Pendings 9.67
92009 217 Actives/40 Pendings 5.43
92010 58 Actives/10 Pendings 5.80
92011 145 Actives/14 Pendings 10.36
92054 245 Actives/27 Pendings 9.07
92056 288 Actives/26 Pendings 11.07
92057 395 Actives/57 Pendings 6.93
92084 297 Actives/19 Pendings 15.63
Nov 7
92008 110 Actives/9 Pendings 12.22
92009 201 Actives/28 Pendings 7.18
92010 55 Actives/15 Pendings 3.67
92011 138 Actives/26 Pendings 5.31
92054 238 Actives/26 Pendings 9.15
92056 281 Actives/30 Pendings 9.37
92057 399 Actives/56 Pendings 7.13
92084 289 Actives/25 Pendings 11.56
Nov 20
92008 112 Actives/8 Pendings 14.00
92009 199 Actives/29 Pendings 6.86
92010 50 Actives/17 Pendings 2.94
92011 142 Actives/12 Pendings 11.83
92054 241 Actives/28 Pendings 8.61
92056 278 Actives/26 Pendings 10.69
92057 394 Actives/59 Pendings 6.68
92084 277 Actives/29 Pendings 9.55
Dec 6
92008 108 Actives/8 Pendings 13.50
92009 199 Actives/26 Pendings 7.65
92010 48 Actives/13 Pendings 3.69
92011 135 Actives/11 Pendings 12.27
92054 245 Actives/28 Pendings 8.75
92056 256 Actives/36 Pendings 7.11
92057 378 Actives/59 Pendings 6.41
92084 271 Actives/24 Pendings 11.29
Jan 6
92008 91 Actives/15 Pendings 6.07
92009 196 Actives/24 Pendings 8.17
92010 47 Actives/7 Pendings 6.71
92011 118 Actives/14 Pendings 8.43
92054 248 Actives/23 Pendings 10.78
92056 244 Actives/30 Pendings 8.13
92057 360 Actives/51 Pendings 8.19
92084 243 Actives/20 Pendings 12.15
Jim the Realtor
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Friday, January 5, 2007 at 08:17AM
Million-dollar Market
Let's track the progress of the high-end. The Jim ratio compares the number of active listings to the number of pending listings. We'll track that, and the number of sales to see the trend. I'll live with a ratio that's higher than normal, and longer market time of the higher-end homes, but I think a range between 4.0 and 6.0 would be a 'healthy market' range.
Listings at or above $1,000,000:
Jim ratio
Jan 1 196 Actives/21 Pendings 8.35
Jan 4 207 Actives/22 Pendings 9.33
Jan 10 214 Actives/18 Pendings 11.89
Jan 18 214 Actives/26 Pendings 8.23
Jan 26 226 Actives/24 Pendings 9.41
Feb 6 224 Actives/32 Pendings 7.00
Feb 14 216 Actives/38 Pendings 5.68
Feb 20 216 Actives/44 Pendings 4.91
Feb 26 227 Actives/47 Pendings 4.83
Mar 7 219 Actives/46 Pendings 4.76
Mar 21 221 Actives/44 Pendings 5.02
Mar 27 224 Actives/39 Pendings 5.74
Apr 2 232 Actives/38 Pendings 6.10
Apr 14 237 Actives/39 Pendings 6.08
Apr 20 240 Actives/43 Pendings 5.58
Apr 27 243 Actives/39 Pendings 6.23
May 3 240 Actives/41 Pendings 5.85
May 12 249 Actives/44 Pendings 5.66
May 21 249 Actives/40 Pendings 6.23
May 31 251 Actives/49 Pendings 5.12
June 11 261 Actives/40 Pendings 6.53
June 22 273 Actives/35 Pendings 7.80
June 30 275 Actives/36 Pendings 7.64
July 11 274 Actives/35 Pendings 7.83
July 22 267 Actives/33 Pendings 8.09
July 29 262 Actives/34 Pendings 7.71
Aug 3 262 Actives/27 Pendings 9.70
Aug 17 274 Actives/30 Pendings 9.13
Aug 25 270 Actives/31 Pendings 8.71
Sep 2 280 Actives/30 Pendings 9.33
Sep 11 279 Actives/23 Pendings 12.13
Sep 25 294 Actives/20 Pendings 14.70
Oct 5 284 Actives/21 Pendings 13.38
Oct 11 288 Actives/25 Pendings 11.52
Oct 25 270 Actives/32 Pendings 8.44
Nov 7 294 Actives/30 Pendings 9.80
Nov 20 265 Actives/19 Pendings 13.95
Dec 6 256 Actives/17 Pendings 15.06
Dec 29 244 Actives/19 Pendings 12.84
Year-to-date closings:
2007 - 232 average $370/sf. average sf = 3,698
2006 - 230 average $382/sf. average sf = 3,672
(through Dec 29, 2007)