Tuesday, September 16, 2008 at 05:55AM
Active/Pending Ratio Update
We have measured the relative "health" of the marketplace by tracking the relationship of active and pending listings. In the past when there has been one pending for every 2-3 active listings, the market has been fairly healthy. When it gets above 4:1 the bulging inventory normally inhibits sales, and there have been times in the last two years when areas have had 7:1 ratios and higher.
There is the seasonality too - here is how the current active/pending ratios compare to those taken on April 4, 2008. Note those in bold that have exceedingly high ratios:
Active/Pending Listings Ratio of Detached Homes
| Town or Area   | Zip Code    | 4/04    | 9/16    | # of Act/Pend today |
| Bonsall | 92003 | 14.5 | 7.67 | |
| Cardiff | 92007 | 8.00 | 6.86 | |
| C-bad NW | 92008 | 4.48 | 2.63 | |
| C-bad SE | 92009 | 5.12 | 4.06 | |
| C-bad NE | 92010 | 2.45 | 3.93 | |
| C-bad SW | 92011 | 5.04 | 3.53 | |
| Del Mar | 92014 | 7.58 | 9.64 | |
| Encinitas | 92024 | 3.87 | 3.88 | |
| La Jolla | 92037 | 5.81 | 9.42 | |
| O-side W | 92054 | 5.76 | 2.86 | |
| O-side SE | 92056 | 4.83 | 1.97 | |
| O-side NE | 92057 | 3.55 | 2.23 | |
| Poway | 92064 | 3.25 | 3.65 | |
| Ramona | 92065 | 7.23 | 4.22 | |
| RSF | 92067 | 14.61 | ||
| San Mrcs N | 92069 | 3.30 | 1.91 | |
| Solana Bch | 92075 | 3.62 | 6.00 | |
| San Mrcs S | 92078 | 3.24 | 3.50 | |
| Vista S | 92081 | 3.34 | 3.68 | |
| Vista Mid | 92083 | 7.31 | 3.11 | |
| Vista N | 92084 | 8.00 | 3.87 | |
| 4S/S-luz | 92127 | 4.48 | 3.87 | |
| RB | 92128 | 4.85 | 2.22 | |
| RP | 92129 | 2.53 | 2.07 | |
| Carmel Vly | 92130 | 3.35 | 3.94 | |
| Scripps Rch | 92131 | 2.51 | 2.67 | |
| Dtwncondo | 92101 | 5.98 | 2.79 | |
| SD County | All | 4.48 | 2.88 |
It's surprising that, in spite of no subprime loans, tougher qualifying, and negative news all around, the majority of the county is doing pretty well - currently. Seventeen of 27 areas have better numbers than they did in April, probably as a result of quicker price adjustment. I accidentally left out RSF in April's count, but it's been about the same all year - can 'the Ranch' and other higher-end areas continue to beat the odds?
Monday, September 15, 2008 at 05:08PM
Sandicor Strikes Again
Last week I did a video response to the mold report submitted by the last buyers of the house on Compass. They had jumped in a little too quick, apparently, and using this report they thought they could work over the bank for some free dough - $34,700 to be exact.
I don't like it when somebody sends in a questionable report, because by law I have to forward it to the eventual buyer, regardless of its accuracy. So using moden technology I videotaped a tour of the house and commented on the alleged mold-like areas.
We know that Sandicor has a rule against putting website addresses in the remarks (my last fine was $500) so I put a link in the CONFIDENTIAL REMARKS as a way to inform other buyer agents that if they were to show the house, there are areas of concern.
Sandicor sent this over today:
It has been reported to Sandicor that the above referenced property is not in compliance with Rule 11.7. The following needs to be removed immediately from the confidential remarks to be in compliance “Jim's video reaction to recent inspection report: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHYqPn36sO8”
11.7 Photographs and Virtual Tours (“Media”) on the MLS. By submitting “Media” to the MLS which were taken by the participant and/or subscriber, the submitting participant and/or subscriber grants the MLS and the other participants and subscribers the right to reproduce and display the “Media” in accordance with these rules and regulations. “Media” submitted by the participant or subscriber may only be used for their specified purpose of displaying the subject property, view from the subject property and/or amenities included in the subject property’s homeowner association fees and/or dues. SANDICOR, Inc. reserves the right to reject or remove any “Media” submitted that includes any text, personal advertising or promotion as well as people or persons. If a listing broker desires to use the photographs, drawings or similar “Media” from a former listing made by another participant or subscriber (the “Original Listing Broker”) in connection with the new listing broker’s active listing, the new listing broker shall first obtain the written permission of the “Original Listing Broker” to do so. MLS Compilation for a particular property, the new listing broker shall first obtain the written permission of the “Original Listing Broker” to do so.
I objected, reminding the clerk that it was in the confidential remarks, and meant to be an informative piece for agents to use when assisting their buyers.
Her response:
When you click on the link it takes you to the tour and to the “ Related Videos” which has tips for home sellers, interviews with listing agents, and your photo with an office sign and phone number.
Well yes, that's how Youtube works, they have other related videos that I've done. But I objected again, based on the link being in the confidential remarks - no buyer will see it.
Her response:
Rule 11.7 reads “ SANDICOR, Inc. reserves the right to reject or remove any “Media” submitted that includes any text, personal advertising or promotion as well as people or persons” this would include your link in the confidential remarks. To be in compliance please remove immediately.
Sounds like I'm being singled out. Bongs and lousy pictures are acceptable, but including a video in an attempt to help agents identify problems gets banned. Go figure.
Monday, September 15, 2008 at 12:33PM
More on VP
Kelly chimed in with an update on the condo deposits - turns out that the $5,000 went towards a 5% non-refundable deposit.
Here's the link to a short update:
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2008/09/15/survival/463vpbuyer091008.txt
Monday, September 15, 2008 at 12:17PM
On Every Corner
I've called the number four times but they either send you to voive mail or try the old trick that the rep is busy and leave your number and he'll get back to you.
I suspect that these are the same types of lenders that used the same signs to reel in the inexperienced/unknowing buyers, and put them into 100% subprime loans.
I don't know that for a fact, but it's the similar pitch that is too-good-to-be-true. Do you really think they have federal funds available?? Sure, they're just handing out money like candy.
They probably have an FHA loan they'll give you if you qualify, or else they'll try to push through a loan mod. Reputable bankers are the only way to go, don't take a chance on a sign on the side of the road!
Monday, September 15, 2008 at 07:47AM
3Q08 Contest Update
We have a contest running on the number of detached sales in SD County for the third quarter. The closest guesser will receive two tickets to a Chargers' game, but after yesterday.....not sure how much of a prize it will be.
Here is the quarterly history:
SD County Detached-Home Sales by Quarter
Year
1stQtr
2ndQtr
3rdQtr
1996
3,597
5,135
4,780
1997
4,021
5,556
5,892
1998
4,603
7,135
6,644
1999
5,394
7,252
7,033
2000
5,349
6,620
6,290
2001
4,951
6,358
6,696
2002
5,988
7,358
6,683
2003
5,576
7,371
8,518
2004
5,906
7,960
7,374
2005
5,465
7,726
7,029
2006
4,565
5,764
4,907
2007
3,964
4,896
3,876
2008
2,964
4,782
????
******************************************
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TODAY'S TOTAL IS 4,140 - HERE ARE THE GUESSES:
| Guess | Guesser |
| 1,500 | Coconutz |
| 2,422 | The Blur |
| 2,525 | FreedomCM |
| 2,666 | Gaswalla |
| 2,777 | Jane |
| 2,845 | Courtc2911 |
| 2,925 | Colleen |
| 3,000 | greenlander |
| 3,001 | Bill |
| 3,007 | Juliius |
| 3,025 | SantaFeHills |
| 3,200 | PoorHouse |
| 3,233 | mark-o |
| 3,254 | HereinCV |
| 3,275 | lbids |
| 3,300 | Sue |
| 3,305 | SurferNate |
| 3,350 | CB Mark |
| 3,375 | BigE |
| 3,395 | RSS |
| 3,430 | worm |
| 3,460 | Woodrow |
| 3,501 | timd |
| 3,502 | Genius |
| 3,546 | Renae |
| 3,562 | Jones |
| 3,587 | Horse Racing Man |
| 3,600 | CVMan |
| 3,645 | JMA |
| 3,650 | CVBidder |
| 3,675 | Timeye |
| 3,700 | Jim H. |
| 3,742 | Ericabiz |
| 3,752 | Noplantobuy |
| 3,756 | Just a Broker |
| 3,760 | ron |
| 3,768 | Stephen Waits |
| 3,838 | dejams |
| 3,850 | Angela |
| 3,901 | daleio |
| 3,924 | Matt |
| 3,925 | Bob |
| 3,942 | Keith Rettig |
| 3,995 | Ex-SD |
| 4,000 | David J. |
| 4,020 | 3mab |
| 4,065 | Dwip |
| 4,120 | jason |
| 4,150 | FirstTimerenter |
| 4,165 | arizonadude |
| 4,176 | Westparker |
| 4,200 | Simone |
| 4,222 | Pichon |
| 4,242 | Neil Diamond |
| 4,300 | dp |
| 4,343 | Mozart |
| 4,444 | bob o |
| 4,450 | CA renter |
| 4,886 | usanancy |
| 5,001 | mybleachhouse |
| 5,432 | moneymarket |
| 5,555 | mojo |
| 6,666 | damien |
| 7,000 | D Max |

