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Wow

I normally take what is said on CNBC with a grain of salt, but Bill Gross's comments were down right pessimistic. He flat out said there is no bull market anywhere. Stocks, no, Bonds, no, Real Estate, no, Commodities, no and the list goes on.

Unless we get a very rapid government financed direct purchase of distressed assets I don't see how the train of deflation can be slowed.

So Jim I think the price per foot if the govt. does not step in could go as low as 150 a foot! Simply amazing.

And I don't think the Republicans will risk any govt. bail out before the election or the Democrats will jump all over the bail out of wall street.

I think we were in the second plateau of the down trend this summer, and now starting the third leg down in asset values.

Glad I don't own a house right now and have debt -- deflation and leverage is a bit34h when deflation exists....

Hi Jim,
Any idea what is wrong with the Calavera hills homes on Moon Field Drive, Pleasand Vale Drive etc around College blvd? There are quite a few houses that are 2000+ sqft, priced in low-mid $200/sqft but are on market for long time. Why aren't they selling? Any idea?
Thanks,

Do you know how many of these deals might have had seller assistance of $20K or more?

carmelgal,

There are six for sale on those two streets:

Four are short sales, and 3 of 4 have accepted offers pending lender approval of SS.

One is tenant-occupied.

One is just plum crazy. $810K w/loan of $566K.

Let's point out how counter-productive this practice is. I'd guess that half of the short-sale listings in the MLS have accepted offers, but realtors leave them in the active file, bloating the inventory and making it look like nothing is selling.

They do it of course because they want to field other offers, but how many buyers are going to take the time and trouble to go look at a house, write an offer, and then wait for the first one to fall out?

There is a box that's marked "Offer accepted pending lender approval", so it doesn't sound like they sent in a bundle of them and you could beat the best. It sounds more like you are a back-up offer, which today means, "No thanks, I'll pass."

"As low as 150 a foot"

I think assuming there is any kind of floor for prices right now, even rental parity, is folly.

You're right though, deflation and debt are a lethal combination. That's part of the basis for my previous statement.

We're still talking $800k for tract homes in Carlsbad. Big tract houses admittedly, but that still sounds insane to me.

OT: I'm planning on making the jump down to SD before the end of the year. Anyone have advice on where I can look into house/condo rentals. Preferrably in the La Jolla/CV/Sorrento area. Del Mar wouldn't be too bad either. We have Westside Rentals up here, but I'm not sure how many people use it in SD county.

Westside Rentals has an office on Garnet Ave in PB. Seems to be a pretty busy place.

Some interesting points there bob.

I am wondering what you and others (especially Jim) think are the outcomes if each nominee wins?

I could imagine that the market is going to tank between now and November for just those reasons stated above. That is, Repubs can't do a bailout for obvious reasons and the Dems can only help so many individuals between now and then.

So what happens if McCain wins...I would assume a bailout attempt happens nearly immediately; I predict limited success. The market continues a slow steady downward pace with a pick up late next year.

So what happens if Obama wins...I would assume a quickened downward pace between November and January with a psychological bottom at that time. That is, the attitude will be better but no real upside for awhile. Pick up happens next year but not as late as McCain.

"Pick up" does not mean in any sense a return to 2005 prices, not whatsoever; it just means things will begin to improve.

Either way it seems I will be waiting until at least next summer to realize any real success in buying my home in San Diego; which totally sucks because I dislike it here in Seattle.

And all of my predictions above are just my opinions; nothing really to back it up.
Just my impression of how the American peoples are going to respond to either outcome.

Here is trouble in paradise as Sept 1 brings out a bit of desperation...in CBad

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080060948-6778_Vermarine_Carlsbad_Ca_92009

doughboy,
So auctions are a sign of desperation? I think a properly-executed auction is a great way to quickly establish 'market price.'

Why do you think there is a bail out with McCain. He has been the quickest to say that nothing should be done to protect speculators.

Bush shovelled the same bullshit as McCain and then signed the bailout right after. You really believe what politicians say?

To the first poster, there aren't many major bull markets, but you can still make money investing. I'm doing fine picking individual stocks that run counter to the market. Walmart for example went up 40% at the same time the down went down by 10%. These aren't flukes - they were boldly predicted by Kramer and investors like myself. Personally Walmart is somewhat overpriced now, but it was a great buy back when the recession was forming.

I sold all my index funds months ago, but now I'm buying individual stocks and they've been holding or countering the market's fall.