Tuesday, September 16, 2008 at 05:55AM
Active/Pending Ratio Update
We have measured the relative "health" of the marketplace by tracking the relationship of active and pending listings. In the past when there has been one pending for every 2-3 active listings, the market has been fairly healthy. When it gets above 4:1 the bulging inventory normally inhibits sales, and there have been times in the last two years when areas have had 7:1 ratios and higher.
There is the seasonality too - here is how the current active/pending ratios compare to those taken on April 4, 2008. Note those in bold that have exceedingly high ratios:
Active/Pending Listings Ratio of Detached Homes
| Town or Area | Zip Code | 4/04 | 9/16 | # of Act/Pend today |
| Bonsall | 92003 | 14.5 | 7.67 | |
| Cardiff | 92007 | 8.00 | 6.86 | |
| C-bad NW | 92008 | 4.48 | 2.63 | |
| C-bad SE | 92009 | 5.12 | 4.06 | |
| C-bad NE | 92010 | 2.45 | 3.93 | |
| C-bad SW | 92011 | 5.04 | 3.53 | |
| Del Mar | 92014 | 7.58 | 9.64 | |
| Encinitas | 92024 | 3.87 | 3.88 | |
| La Jolla | 92037 | 5.81 | 9.42 | |
| O-side W | 92054 | 5.76 | 2.86 | |
| O-side SE | 92056 | 4.83 | 1.97 | |
| O-side NE | 92057 | 3.55 | 2.23 | |
| Poway | 92064 | 3.25 | 3.65 | |
| Ramona | 92065 | 7.23 | 4.22 | |
| RSF | 92067 | 14.61 | ||
| San Mrcs N | 92069 | 3.30 | 1.91 | |
| Solana Bch | 92075 | 3.62 | 6.00 | |
| San Mrcs S | 92078 | 3.24 | 3.50 | |
| Vista S | 92081 | 3.34 | 3.68 | |
| Vista Mid | 92083 | 7.31 | 3.11 | |
| Vista N | 92084 | 8.00 | 3.87 | |
| 4S/S-luz | 92127 | 4.48 | 3.87 | |
| RB | 92128 | 4.85 | 2.22 | |
| RP | 92129 | 2.53 | 2.07 | |
| Carmel Vly | 92130 | 3.35 | 3.94 | |
| Scripps Rch | 92131 | 2.51 | 2.67 | |
| Dtwncondo | 92101 | 5.98 | 2.79 | |
| SD County | All | 4.48 | 2.88 |
It's surprising that, in spite of no subprime loans, tougher qualifying, and negative news all around, the majority of the county is doing pretty well - currently. Seventeen of 27 areas have better numbers than they did in April, probably as a result of quicker price adjustment. I accidentally left out RSF in April's count, but it's been about the same all year - can 'the Ranch' and other higher-end areas continue to beat the odds?
Jim the Realtor
in Actives/Pendings
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Reader Comments (8)
500 combined listings for LJ and RSF and bad Jim ratio. Trouble in the upper end horizon. Many of those 500 have likely lost big chunks of change in their market portfolios since Sunday too. That will start to hurt many more folks. Not many total homes in Del Mar proper either, so that 135 listings is a big number to digest.
JTR,
Adam, one of the resident realtor guys over at Piggington says that a very high percentage of the active listngs in the MLS are short sales that are left active in the MLS. Is there anyway to quantify what this would do to the ratios?
Need Help.
I checked that yesterday and it was 11% of the active listings that were marked "offer accepted pending lender approval".
My guess is that the actual number is at least twice that, because the box to check is so obscure that most agents don't even know it's there.
I used to go through and take out those late-reporters that had already closed, but are still marked pending, so I was figuring it was about even. But if anything these numbers are conservative.
What is the close ratio of those short sales? My guess on that is less than 50% more due to buyers bailing than lenders denying.
Can 'the Ranch' and other higher-end areas continue to beat the odds?
Nope.
Barring government interference, those ratios simply confirm that their price drops are inevitable.
I'm amazed at the houses that sit in LJ and Del Mar for months on end with no price changes. Waiting for those mythical Europeans, I suppose.
"It's surprising that, in spite of no subprime loans, tougher qualifying, and negative news all around, the majority of the county is doing pretty well - currently."
At the moment, it looks pretty much like what you'd expect to see during a "normal" downturn, when prices fall, buyers are in short supply and owners who don't have to sell just don't list. The ratios would look normal but the volumes would be lower.
Wonder how long it'll last before the next wave of distressed homes has to be sold.
Is there anyway to add foreclosed but not listed and NTS homes to the Jim ratio? It would even be worse if you added in 67% of the NOD homes (67% is the percent that goes to foreclosure). How many Oceanside and Vista homes do you have from CFC that have not been listed?
I did a check of the newer La Costa Village neighborhoods--some seem to be holding up, some are not. La Costa Oaks has a less than 1.85 ratio--lot's of activity there-especially on the higher priced stuff--go figure.