Saturday, September 13, 2008 at 09:48AM
Data Points
Bruce Norris said the other night that foreclosures have out-paced house sales this year in San Diego County, and it didn't quite sit right.
On further review, he is using totals of all trustee deeds, which would include condos and other property types.
To paint a slightly more accurate picture, here is the chart on monthly numbers for attached and detached resales, compared to the trustee deeds:
Other data:
The year-to-date sales on the MLS have improved, now only 5.7% behind last year's 18,535 between January and August.
But Housingtracker.net is showing a 28.5% increase in REO inventory in just the last two months:
http://www.housingtracker.net/reo/california/san-diego
They also show a 22.8% reduction in the median asking price over the last 12 months. The correction has picked up speed in 2008, they show an overall 33.6% drop since August, 2005:
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/
As prices have dropped and inventory staying relatively flat or fewer, more buyers are coming out (no grumbling about my phone ringing off the hook!).
For example, the Oceanside REO listing featured here on the last video for $229,900 has five offers on it, three of them over list price.
But finding the right house at the right price is still a battle - keep looking!
Jim the Realtor
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Reader Comments (4)
Bruce Norris maybe playing with the numbers.
But he will be right that foreclosure will be more than home sales in the next six months.
Its going to continue the perfect storm with prices going down.
We have gone from sub prime to alt a to prime loans going down.This should continue the downward spiral into the summer of 2009. Then the option arm will begin to hit the market in the summer of 2009.
The perfect housing storm continues.
With the economy slowing down after the election.
I wonder about the buffered invisible future inventory. You know, all those boomers with only one kid left at home waiting for the market to turn so they can cash out and move to Scottsdale.
Agreed - especially those in their 50s who haven't even thought about it yet. Those with high-schoolers who, after another 3-5 years will be empty-nesters.
If they are thinking about it, Scottsdale probably sounds palatable. But by the time they get around to moving, they'll have less equity, and more needs if Social Security lets them down.
They may end up in Montana in order to hang onto more cash, which last time I checked, is somewhat different than Scottsdale.
I see inventory going up (or at least failing to fall) this fall because of the REOs, so the higher inventory related to sales is going to create a gap that can only be closed by (i) dramatic price declines or (ii) really stupid, massive government intervention.
As a buyer who really wanted to buy due to the kids starting school, I can also say that the price declines have created an enormous push to buy before school starts. I think the school effect is even bigger than normal because price declines make it "possible", which it hasn't been until now.