Saturday, August 30, 2008 at 07:45AM
Million-Dollar Market, Part 2
How is the million-dollar-and-up market doing today? This chart includes the number of listings over $1 million that are currently active and pending, plus those that closed in August, 2008:
| Town or Area | ACT | PEND | Aug SOLDS |
| Carlsbad | 190 | 24 | 9 |
| Carmel Vly | 137 | 14 | 13 |
| DM/SB | 203 | 21 | 8 |
| Encinitas | 140 | 22 | 6 |
| La Jolla | 314 | 34 | 19 |
| RSF | 274 | 22 | 7 |
| WRB92127 | 138 | 20 | 4 |
| Totals | 1,396 | 157 | 66 |
Technically it's possible for all those that are unsold to be able to hang in there until it's their turn, but this is a 21-month supply of million-dollar-plus listings. Can they hold on long enough? Technically, the Padres could win the World Series this year too.
Jim the Realtor
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Reader Comments (3)
The pendings to sold ratio in RSF points to an uptick in the market in August. Any thoughts on this? I know sellers are getting more aggressive, and maybe this was indicative of an end-of-summer capitulation.
Notably, there are over 35 homes listed near or above $10m in RSF on sdlookup. Two have closed this year in that price range. Its possible that RSF will "crash from above" as builders own a good chunk of that inventory, including Roxbury Estates on Poco Lago.
Unless the August pendings are a sign of renewed buyer interest, I would think this Fall will see a discounting blood bath in RSF. The big wildcard is how many homes get pulled from the market. It could be less this year are inventory mix has probably shifted away from the "market testers".
Interesting, because it seems like the "very special" places (that will never fall) look like they are about to go over a cliff.
While there certainly is some **real** money in RSF, La Jolla, etc., there were plenty of recent buyers who were speculating just the same as the entry buyers in O'side.
It's all about the critical mass. I'm guessing 30% of the $1MM+ buyers in 2003-2007 could actually afford their homes over the entire term of their loans (that's probably pretty conservative). IMO, next year we will see a blood bath in the higher-end areas, maybe around Q3 of 2009.
The subprime debacle moved million-dollar-plus homes out of the "high end that never falls" into the same timebomb category as Jim's Oceanside REOs. Offhand, I'd say today's bar for "market immune" real estate is now the point at which all-cash purchases rather than mortgages are the norm. Maybe 10 million or more?