Wednesday, August 27, 2008 at 11:11AM
Comparison By Area
I'll include more areas later, but here are the current stats for Carlsbad. In spite of lower average $/sf pricing, the closed sales are still below last year - until sales pick up, expect further price declines.
In particular, the inferior homes that are priced like superior homes are killing the marketplace. Buyers get discouraged by looking at so many over-priced turkeys (OPTs), and will likely go into hibernation for the winter.
(2007 closed sales are for Jan. 1 through Aug. 22)
2007/2008 Detached-home sales and average $/sf comparison:
| Town or Area | No. of Sales | Avg. $ per SF | |
| Carlsbad NW | |||
| 2007 | 107 | $392 | |
| 2008 | 97 (-9%) | $328 (-16%) | |
| Carlsbad SE | |||
| 2007 | 311 | $316 | |
| 2008 | 211 (-32%) | $290 (-8%) | |
| Carlsbad NE | |||
| 2007 | 81 | $274 | |
| 2008 | 53 (-35%) | $278 (+1%) | |
| Carlsbad SW | |||
| 2007 | 175 | $356 | |
| 2008 | 123 (-30%) | $340 (-4%) | |
| Encinitas | |||
| 2007 | 279 | $420 | |
| 2008 | 226 (-19%) | $392 (-7%) | |
| Carmel Vly | |||
| 2007 | 303 | $366 | |
| 2008 | 254 (-16%) | $360 (-2%) | |
| La Jolla | |||
| 2007 | 205 | $749 | |
| 2008 | 129 (-37%) | $835 (+11%) | |
| RSF | |||
| 2007 | 119 | $555 | |
| 2008 | 83 (-30%) | $533 (-4%) | |
| DM/SB | |||
| 2007 | 152 | $648 | |
| 2008 | 72 (-53%) | $659 (+2%) | |
| Santaluz | |||
| 2007 | 55 | $413 | |
| 2008 | 35 (-36%) | $334 (-19%) | |
| Crosby | |||
| 2007 | 36 | $393 | |
| 2008 | 12 (-67%) | $371(-6%) |
Here's a scorecard - add the two scores together, and:
Levitators = totals less than -25%
Slippery slopes = totals between -25% and -50%
Panic Buttons = totals more than -50%
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How are the defaults? The tax rolls have a 'foreclosure activity' category, which groups both the NODs and NOTS, plus a few lis pendens (the obvious lis pendens were deleted).
Most are condos:
| Town or Area | # of Defaults |
| RSF | 12 |
| DM/SB | 43 |
| Carlsbad NW | 66 |
| Carlsbad NE | 67 |
| Carmel Vly | 68 |
| Carlsbad SW | 70 |
| PB/MB | 72 |
| Univ City | 86 |
| La Jolla | 87 |
| Encinitas | 92 |
| Carlsbad SE | 98 |
| Poway | 142 |
| RBwest92127 | 167 |
| SnMrcs92078 | 254 |
| Total | 1,324 |
Compare to Oceanside and Vista:
| Zip code | # of Defaults |
| 92054 | 142 |
| 92056 | 358 |
| 92057 | 580 |
| 92058 | 166 |
| OSD Total | 1,246 |
| 92081 | 136 |
| 92083 | 250 |
| 92084 | 303 |
| Vista Total | 689 |
Jim the Realtor
8 Comments
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Reader Comments (8)
Jim,
If you take the 123 solds in Carlsbad 92011 (SW) and throw out the top 10 and bottom 10 and use the remaining 103 properties the price has got to be below $300.00 per sq ft of sold price. I don't think anyone is anxious to spend more than that on all the 2500-3000 sq ft 15-30 year old unimproved properties which make up all the meat or middle ground that in the market.
Quote of the day - Kind of off topic, but overheard a realtor downtown (walking into Keller Williams) talking WAY too loud on his cellphone - "Pre-qualified just doesn't make it anymore - I've had three deals fall out of escrow and the buyers were pre-qualified!"
Hmmmm. . .guess cash is king these days.
Are pre-qualified borrowers getting rejected at the last minute, or are they simply using it as an excuse if prices drop during a lengthy closing process?
They are probably lying / fudging on the pre-quals...
When everything is verified, the underwriter finds out that they "fudged" a little on income, assets, or something...
Plus, the mortgage qualification noose gets tighter and tighter every day.
I guess there is going to be a new category, super pre qualified where someone actually submits their credit score and paystub with an offer.
Jim how are the NOD trending in Carlsbad, are they starting to pick up?
WaMu's minimum FICO for a prequal is 680 right now. And then you still need 20% down.
92127 looks like an Oceanside zipcode
ocrenter, I agree. 92127 will be looking like Oceanside, San Marcos, & Chula Vista. So many recent sales (last 5 years) w/ major resets occuring. I bet 4S Ranch will drop another 10-20%, on average, over the next year. I walked through an REO recently over there and the neighbors were aghast at what it was selling for. During the peak of the market, 4S had huge lines forming during new phase releases. It was like a mad house over there back in the day. Buyers who had big down payments from selling during the boom, have some cushion, but the high LTV buyers are really worried.