Saturday, July 19, 2008 at 08:19AM
SD Housing Price Index
SD Scientist is tracking the San Diego home prices, a la Case-Shiller, with a predictive element looking three months into the future. For more, click here to visit the blog: http://sdhpi.blogspot.com/
Here is the first chart you'll see - it shows some leveling in prices:
Jim the Realtor
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The one I find most telling is the "Three Tiers of San Diego Real Estate". Basically, the low and middle tiers have now converged to prices as of late 2002/early 2003. However the high tier is still at spring '04 levels. One year difference doesn't sound like a lot, but the appreciation was rapid at that time, and the high tier started the bubble later than the lower tiers.
To drop to late 2002/early 2003 levels, the high tier would have to decline another 20%. Personally I think this will happen, between the neg-am resets and sellers eventually giving up on waiting for bubble pricing to come back again. And knowing human nature, I wouldn't be surprised if prices overshot some on the down end as well.
Nice plots, SD Sci.
I don't see the leveling off. Just take the shape of each curve Feb-May out of context and they all look the same for each plot line for '60, '07 and '08. A little smiley face. All the divergent and downward moves occur outside this time frame.
I don't expect the descent to be a straight line. We'll have mini-rallies, bups, different segments moving at different times. Much like the leg up.
The bottom end has blown down, We're in the 'hot' selling season and sales are so-so. The economy is rough, unemployment up. I expect the next downleg to start this fall. The high end will pull down and then the low end will extend it's losses.
All you have to do is look at the 91-96 downturn. We're in the equivalent of summer '92.
I believed 4S should much worse than RB and CMR.
Off the subject, Jim I noticed your house in Sea Mesa is pending. That's the price range I'm watching. Can you give us the details?
loharp
I see what Rob Dawg sees...the usual "spring bounce," and this spring was particularly active.
Will be interesting to see how things fare over the next two years or so. The bank failures are just starting, as is the recession, IMHO.
Hey, thanks for featuring me :) I'm getting lots of hits.
BTW a small clarification. It's not that my index has some visionary predictive power. It's Case-Shiller (the official one) that's published with an effective 3 month lag.
For example, on July 29'th we'll get a new number from C-S. It will be based on the average of all closings in March, April, and May. So, it will be representative of house prices as of April. Three days later, I'll update my charts, but I'll use all closings already reported for July.
Makes sense?
Jim,
Where are the Sandicor sales numbers for May and June?