bubbleinfo.com - Journal

We've seen around the blogosphere the mortgage map from the NY Fed, and for future reference here is the link:

Poking around the website provided additional data about subprime and Alt-A loans in each state. We've been wondering what's in store for resetting ARMs over the next few years - here's what the NY Fed's research department has published on the State of California (they credit FirstAmerican CoreLogic, LoanPerformance Data):

Facts About California Subprime and Alt-A Mortgages

Item of Interest	Subprime Mortgages	Alt-A Mortgages
Number Of	489,801	721,291
Avg. Balance	$325,638	$420,291
Avg. FICO	640	709
Int. Only	153,210 (47%)	257,869 (36%)
Neg-Am	399	222,802 (31%)
Late Pmt Last 12 mo.	54.2%	23.5%
Began 2007	14.6%	24.1%
Began 2006	43.2%	38.3%
Began 2005	28.8%	26.3%
Began 2004-	13.4%	11.3%
% of Loans=ARM	73%	72%
Low or No Doc	47.4%	83.2%
Purchase Loans	39.6%	36.0%
Cash-out Refis	54.7%	44.9%
ARM Already Reset	121,918 (25%)	202,539 (28%)
Reset Next 12 mo	43.4%	3.6%
Reset 12-23 mo.	14.3%	4.9%
Reset 24+ mo.	6.2%	43.3%
In Foreclosure	12.5%	4.3%

This chart is for all of California, at their website you can plug in your individual zip code but not get specific counts, just a colored map. The NY Fed decided to stop publishing the numbers last month - sounds to me a little like when the government quit publishing the M3 - they don't want you to know how bad it is specifically, "but here, have a colored map instead". BTW, the percentages don't add up on when the resets are coming, but I think you get the gist of it - steady diet of subprimes resetting the next two years, followed by solid neg-am action. Though the stats here are probably based on planned resets for the neg-ams, they will start sooner if/when they hit their cap limit.

Here is a copy of Alt-A loans in North SD County zip codes marked for those who missed a payment in the last 12 months, with an inset of the total Alt-A chart for California:

92009%20map%20-1.jpg

Here's more ammo for you conspiracy theorists; they aren't publishing data for RSF's 92067 zip code. Everyone knows that there is no mail delivery in the Ranch, residents only have a P.O. Box. That's about the only excuse I could think of as to why the 92067 zip isn't included, but notice that the darker cloud over the Ranch is marked as 92091.