bubbleinfo.com

Zillow shows a few more sale transactions for that property:

Sale History
05/08/2008: $153,000
01/26/2007: $250,000
01/18/2007: $208,250
10/14/2005: $310,000
12/19/2003: $215,000
05/19/2003: $300,000
04/12/2001: $124,000
09/18/1995: $56,000
11/21/1994: $67,059

The $153,000 and $208,250 were the trustee sales, Zillow includes those. Not sure about the $300,000 though.

$250/month HOA fees for that crap hole? NUTS!

HOA fees are out of control in SD. I've seen condos downtown that are over $800 per month. What a ripoff!

I don't understand why the homeowners don't get together and actually review where their $$$ is going.

$250/month HOA for the Los Arbolitos area is actually not as bad as most of the condos in that community.

Almost a 50% decline in price! Redfin had a scary blog of a guy calling for a depression due to these large losses and the impending flood of REO's that are being held back.

I'm not one for the depression camp but it scares me a bit when I see redfin post something and then I go here and see a house 50% off of the top.

Somone somewhere is eating this 150k plus loss -- so the questions are is this normal, will this happen in more affluent neighborhoods and if so can our economy really take such a hit?

And then I remember reading that in LA county, the county is more than 2 billion behind in mortgage payments -- that means 2 billion was added to the economy that really should have been used to pay debt. So what happens when the free rent stops.....does this house drop another 50%?

And then I remember reading that in LA county, the county is more than 2 billion behind in mortgage payments -- that means 2 billion was added to the economy that really should have been used to pay debt.

No, people are not generally holding back $3000 they have and not paying the mortgage. Truth is they don't have the $3000 so it isn't going towards consumption. My next shoe is with rents declining how long the casual and accidental investors are going to tolerate their negative cash flow. It was fine to rent out for $1000 and eat $500/mo when houses were going up $4000 per month. No longer.

see a house 50% off of the top

It's not just this one, virtually all the homes for sale in the area are half-off, and are bank-owned or short sales.

I'll do an actual count and get back to you.

But it is relative - a loss of $150,000 is but a flesh wound compared to the whacks in the higher-end areas - there are just less of the more-expensive ones happening so far.

It's not just this one, virtually all the homes for sale in the area are half-off, and are bank-owned or short sales.
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Yep. And there are a lot more that have $200K+ losses already, and this is just in the lower-end areas.

Think about all the homes that are NOT on the market right now. From what I know, most of the people in that area added tons of debt onto their mortgages ("cashed-out"). It's a simple neighborhood with simple people. I think there's ample reason to believe that they will not be able to pay their increased mortgages over the long-term.

Resets don't matter. Many people were cannibalizing their mortgages and using the proceeds for living expenses (paid off credit cards for the first time in their lives, made much-needed improvements in their homes, repaired/replaced older cars, etc., AND were able to keep up on their new, higher mortgage payments with the "cashed-out" money). That's why we saw so many serial refinances, IMHO.

I'm guessing that many people cannot even make their mortgage payments unless they get the extra "income" (debt) from rising housing prices. It was like having an extra income-earner in the family -- often the "primary" earner (the house). Now, the highest-paid "earner" has lost its job (prices stopped rising).

I think lack of price appreciation (and failure to propertly qualify buyes) is the reason for the foreclosures. Not resets, not high interest rates, not shorter "teaser" periods. The borrowers were never qualified to pay back the kind of debt they were taking on in the first place.

A great analysis of the market in that area Ca. renter.

I think Greenspan trying to avert a real estate collapse like Japan's after their stock market melt down was the cause. By liquifying the ecconomy the lenders had so much cash to lend that if you could fog a mirror you could get a home loan. After they sliced & diced the bonds they then sold them world wide as safe investments. The sad part is the rest of the world bought them!!

It will get very nasty before it ends! Mr. T.

Overheard in Del Mar: someone who had changed careers, catching up with an old colleague:

"I'll be the first to admit that I wasn't the smartest engineer around. But the smartest real estate agent? By orders of magnitude."

Jim the Realtor excluded, obviously.

Hey W.C, did you read that rant in sandiegohomeblog.com about the MLS? I loved the part where she says (referring to some computer manipulations that are required):

This doesn’t seem insurmountable until you consider that the average agent can’t back out of their driveway without a Thomas Guide.

Heh.

"From what I know, most of the people in that area added tons of debt onto their mortgages ("cashed-out")."

Is there someplace where you can look up what the mortgage is on a property? I know that it's possible, because I keep getting junk mail from companies claiming to be able to save me money on a refi and they all seem to know what my mortgage is (though they all list the original balance and not the current one).

There are two entities that have the data, the county recorder's ofice, and the title insurance companies. You can pay per-item at the recorder's office, or get it from a realtor or title rep. We have the tax rolls included as part of the MLS.

The only reason I can think of why the title companies won't go public with it is to protect the realtors. Somebody is going to make it public and easy to find someday.