Tuesday, May 20, 2008 at 06:08AM
Same-House Sales 92130
The five same-house sales for Carmel Valley (92130) this month are still looking pretty strong. The median sales price of the overall 24 that have closed so far is $945,000, and last year there were 42 closings in May with a median of $947,500 - virtually unchanged year-over-year.
The overall median SP/average SF is dropping, from $329 to $306, but the worst loss of these five same-house sales was $47,000 (plus closing costs).
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5487 White Oak
5 br/3 ba 2,673 sf
$925,000 SP 6/07
$1,020,000 LP 11/07
$885,000 SP 5/08
YB: 2005, HOA = $46, MR = $225
For a house that backs to apartments and has a view of the freeway 100 yards away, I think the sellers did pretty good - it was a short sale too.
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10707 Heather Ridge
5 br/3 ba 2,724 sf
$1,092,000 SP 5/06 (new)
$1,075,000 LP 2/08
$1,045,000 SP 5/08
YB: 2006, HOA = $66, MR = $104
Another one that did OK, considering that they back to a busy street too.
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5289 Foxhound Way
4 br/3.5 ba 3,523 sf
$1,147,500 SP 1/07 (new)
$1,299,000 LP 3/08
$1,250,000 SP 5/08
YB: 2007, HOA = $60, MR = $104
Derby Hill resale that had $150,000 in upgrades but no view or canyon frontage. This lot is 6,800 sf, and it backs right up to two other houses - but hey, what do you want for $1.25? (Wasn't this a FSBO for quite a while?)
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13243 Evening Sky
5 br/4.5 ba 3,922 sf
$1,209,500 SP 8/05 (new)
$1,660,000 LP 2/08
$1,585,000 SP 5/08
YB: 2005 HOA = $104, MR = $104
The former owners had at least $100,000 invested in exterior upgrades, including a salt-water pool with solar heating. They did alright, all considered.
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6105 Del Mar Mesa
6 br/5.5 ba 8,022 sf
$2,089,766 assessed value
$5,750,000 LP 12/07
$3,800,000 SP 5/08 cash
YB: 2006 HOA = $0, MR = $97
This was a new-built by the sellers on 4.77 acres in an area where there is enough competition that you still have to be sharp on price. But if they had less than $3 million into it, they did alright too.
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If five of the 24 were previously sold since 2004, what about the others? They have sufficient equity to carve a little more off their price - could there be a slow deterioration in pricing due to the long-time owners not needing to hold out? In other words, could the Case-Shiller index be missing some real-time action?
A review of the 19 sales that were previously sold in 2003 or earlier, and compared to other recent sales of identical square footage:
Recent Comp May Sale, same sf
$684,000 - 2/08 $722,000 (+5.5%)
$815,000 - 1/08, $792,000 (-2.8%)
$876,000 - 12/07, $815,000 (-7.0%)
$845,000 - 4/08, $820,000 (-3.0%)
$1.015 M - 1/08, $1.045 M (+3.0%)
No huge revelations there either - could Carmel Valley hold up?
Jim the Realtor
13 Comments
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Reader Comments (13)
Although I don't like that prices are remaining too high in some areas. I can't argue with your numbers.
I'm seeing the same thing throughout SD. Houses in the better areas are going down in price a little but not very much.
My guess is that people that have been saving and sitting on the sidelines waiting for a chance to jump in are buying whatever becomes available. My other theory is that people that 2 years ago could only afford a condo are now moving up to SFR's
The prices stay the same, but the sellers are losing out on 6% and upgrades - so they are still swallowing a 100K+ loss...but, it could be worse
Jim makes a good point about people who already have a good chunk of equity in their homes.
But I still think those same people would not sell in this market. It would be the height of stupidity to sell now unless you had to.
38% of sales last month were foreclosures and the bulk were under $500K. I think the median number is also skewed in that people who are holding would not sell for less than their 2005 values.
Prices for good homes will remain considerably higher than the median as the low quality stuff moves through the system. You can look at the zip codes that are up this year to see what I mean.
Del Mar Mesa and Carmel Country Highlands is good enough to carry the rest of CV. Somehow they keep managing to jam homes up there.
Pacific Highlands Ranch is what I want to see.
The last time I saw real drops in Carmel Valley pricing was in 2001 recession when QCOM was laying off a load of people.
I think that scenario is possible again.
I wanted to buy in CV but couldn't find a "fair" deal so I bought a new house in Leucadia 2 blocks to the water for LESS!!!!!!!! And - the schools are very good. And, I work in N. County.
I'm glad I did because prices are holding well here in Leucadia and since I put 85% down, I can ride this thing out.
knifecatchers?
Knifecatchers?
No, stairsteppers. Some are buying what they can afford for less than anytime in the last few years (note the cash offer). Others are doubtless speculating to some extent. Remember there were a lot of people who sold on the ladder in 2005-06 who haven't learned the brutal lesson of leverage. I go with our host; the good stuff is still to come forward.
But I still think those same people would not sell in this market. It would be the height of stupidity to sell now unless you had to.
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Or...it could be the smartest thing they could do.
As noted here, some areas are still getting near-peak prices. If someone who bought in 1977 wants to sell, this would probably be the next-to-best time (best being right at peak), as there is no guarantee we'll see peak prices for many, many years to come.
During the last downturn, we didn't see peak prices for over ten years in LA.
With the fallout that's coming from this credit bubble, I highly doubt we'll be seeing the kind of run-up like we've had since 2000. With global wage arbitrage, loss of defined-benefit pension plans & employer-paid health benefits, people will need the save even more money, leaving less for housing costs. Additionally, Baby Boomers will likely be net sellers, not buyers as they move toward their retirement years (with too little money!).
Well, you'd think that people living in a nicer part of town are smarter with their money to begin with (I realize I'm walking a fine line with demographics and political correctness here, so please forgive me.) So even if they overpaid, they could still afford to live there. Therefore there isn't as much pressure to sell, and there are also fewer foreclosures to really push those prices down. I think Mozart is right in assuming people won't sell if they don't have to.
Still, it looks like there's a little pressure based on Jim's numbers. 3-7% drop seems almost negligible compared to other areas of SD, but it's still significant dollars. I expect CV will certainly hold up better than O'Side, and areas like Carlsbad will be somewhere in between. Time will tell.
Just wait, there are a fast growing number of NOD's (Notice of Defaults) in Carmel Valley, some of them on prime properties (Promontory, Private Collection, Meadows Del Mar, Santa Barbara). Get a subscription to ForclosureRadar and check it out yourself. The pain train is coming...it just takes longer in the prime areas for the shakeout.
I ran into a guy I went to high school with the other night at the gym, hadn’t seen him in about 20 years. He told me he was a mortgage broker for the past 15yrs but is now out of a job. He was making 20-30K a month a few years ago and bought a 1.2M house in Aviara with his girl friend, who happens to be a RE agent. He said he did a 10 yr loan at about 5%, I didn’t ask if he meant 10 yr term or 10 yr ARM(if there is such a thing?). He figures he will probably lose the house
He told me a number of his former co-workers had bought 1M plus houses in Aviara during the good times and most are now in major trouble. I figure this is being played out in CV as well. The only way I see CV holding up is if the sub-prime market comes back as strong or stronger then it was a few years ago and these people can start making money again.
Does anyone think that will happen?
On a side note he told me his girl has a listing in Encinitas Ranch she can’t sell for 750K, said it sold for 1.3M a few years ago. I will have to get more details on that, don’t know if he had the numbers right or not……
Wonder what will happen when buyers realize how overcrowded the middle school is ? All those new elementary schools are great, but what happens after that ? I hear they are looking for volunteers to bus to Earl Warren (that is if they actually had buses)
Here is interesting pricing on the Elysian condo's in Carmel Valley. The place was built in 1991 - basically the peak of the prior run up in prices for SoCal. Here is one unit's entire sales history. The person who bought in '91 had for 6 years and lost $37K when they sold it. The next owner did well by making $300K when they sold after 7 years. The last owner let the bank foreclose and they lost $95k after 4 years...
May 13, 1991 $190,875 --
Aug 29, 1997 $153,500 -3.4%/yr
Mar 23, 2004 $427,000 16.9%/yr
Feb 04, 2008 $332,409 -6.3%/yr