Tuesday, May 20, 2008 at 05:59AM
April Stats, SoCal
Looks like SD is faring better than the rest in Southern California, price-wise, but you know what the lower sales counts probably mean - more pressure on pricing ahead:
It's probably just a coincidence, but interesting that both the median sales price and number of sales were down by a nearly-identical amount.
Jim the Realtor
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8:50am and I don't see the usual excitement that bad news brings from the people who seem to be enjoying the real estate downturn. But, nice way to make good news still mean bad news.
Time for the bottom feeders to get it in gear and profit from peoples shattered dreams as fast as they can because the bottom is here.
It's 9 am and I'll say that I'm excited to see the slide continue! There's a fine line between shattered dreams and stupidity. Of course, being the selfish person that I am, I'm happy to profit on either! (Actually, I'm not even looking to profit - I'm looking to live in a place that I like and can afford without totally overpaying.)
Saw a foreclosure in Del Mar on the MLS this morning - just a few blocks from the beach, under $1 million. Oh, the pressure isn't even getting bad yet . . .
I will bite Mozart.
It is just one more month closer to the option arm trouble in the second half 2009 till 2012.
that when the all the homes built in Carmel Valley will be in big trouble. How many families have income that bought or keep buying $800,000 to 1 million homes. Can't wait until they try and recast with a lower value house and monthly payments that will double.
I'm just waiting and saving money.
Looking for a boomer to kick out of my house.
I saw a foreclosure in Carmel Valley - Ruette San Rapheal? for $725k.
It was a foreclosure that was bought as a foreclosure.
Too many stupid people jumping in too soon.
I believe the time to buy is when no one wants anything to do with real estate.
That may be 6 years from now. Who knows? But definitely not now.
Never thought I'd see the day when someone thought -18.4% 12 month "appreciation" for SD was good news.
We are not even close to the bottom yet, but I am glad some still see the glass as half full.
There's very little gloating here regardless of the news. Most people end up here out of disgust with the downturn blogs. Thanks to JtR for shootin' straight.
This isn't a carnival ride, it is calculus in real time. Area under the curve is a combination of price and time. At this point how long we hold these numbers will determine the extent of the carnage. Think about extreme examples like if the median house lost 50% in first half of the month but gained 90% the next half. nobody would even know the area under the curve almost canceling out. Maybe only a few houses got creamed most never even felt the turbulence.
SMC- sales were up 33% from March to April. Biggest jump since 1995. The median was also up $5K even with foreclosures. To me that is good news.
And just looking around a 2,452 sf house in Cardiff just sold on 5/18 for $1,195,000 in 70 days after a 5% discount from LP. Jim's postings tell a similar story.
I'm not saying, (or hoping), that we are in for a boom again. Just that the indicators are that a more stable situation may be taking hold.
Mozart,
I look at it this way, March must have been really bad for there to be that large of an increase in this market. And if 5K is all the market got out of the spring bounce that is pretty pathetic. We also had a 65% increase in foreclosures for the month of April, I don’t think that will help stabilize anything.
My feeling is that once the SD median is below 300K we will be close to the bottom, so we still have a ways to go.
I'll bite...
As noted in my prediction for March sales, I thought February and March would have screaming sales numbers. Very surprising to me was the painfully low sales numbers in Feb and March. April picked those up.
February saw a massive spike in foot traffic -- like that seen in 2004/2005 -- but the numbers didn't come through until April. Longer escrows? More negotiating? More BOMs? Who knows?
I'm already seeing what might be a slowdown in foot traffic and "buying energy"...the downward side of the spring bounce, which usually arrives right about May/June.
We know a number of people who've bought $1MM homes, and they are barely hanging on. If anyone loses a job (or takes a wage cut!) for more than 3 months, it's over. Most of them have non-traditional mortgages.
"Time for the bottom feeders to get it in gear and profit from peoples shattered dreams as fast as they can because the bottom is here."
Have fun trying to catch falling knives.