Sunday, May 18, 2008 at 08:13AM
Actives/Pendings + YOY April Sales
The middle of May is prime time - the graduation season is right around the corner, and then the vacations start. Those buyers actively in the hunt have either bought something, or are getting tired of the search. Sellers - don't be surprised if you see these numbers get worse between now and July/August. If you have been trying to sell for more than 30 days and haven't, it's time to lower your price!
Here is a chart showing how the actives-to-pendings ratio has changed since April 4th, plus a comparison of closed sales from April 2007 to April 2008.
Ratio of Active/Pending Listings of Detached Homes, and YOY April Closings
Town or Area
Zip Code
4/4/08
5/18/08
Apr 07/Apr 08 Sales
Bonsall
92003
14.50
11.40
4/2
Cardiff
92007
8.00
9.60
4/7
C-bad NW
92008
4.48
4.17
14/14
C-bad SE
92009
5.12
3.93
55/22
C-bad NE
92010
2.45
3.93
7/13
C-bad SW
92011
5.04
4.79
28/20
Del Mar
92014
7.58
3.35
13/11
Encinitas
92024
3.87
3.46
45/37
La Jolla
92037
5.81
6.68
33/20
O-side W
92054
5.76
3.58
24/19
O-side SE
92056
4.83
3.07
37/37
O-side NE
92057
3.55
2.99
36/64
Poway
92064
3.25
2.94
31/33
RSF
92067
11.55
20/10
Ramona
92065
7.23
5.43
35/25
San Mrcs N
92069
3.30
2.74
31/24
Solana Bch
92075
3.62
4.55
2/8
San Mrcs S
92078
3.24
3.24
30/37
Vista S
92081
3.34
4.50
25/13
Vista Mid
92083
7.31
4.76
10/11
Vista N
92084
8.00
7.22
23/17
4S/S-luz
92127
4.48
3.56
41/28
RB
92128
4.85
3.26
49/30
RP
92129
2.53
1.80
31/23
Carmel Vly
92130
3.35
3.35
51/30
Scripps
92131
2.51
3.09
22/23
Dtwncondo
92101
5.98
6.07
69/58
SD County
All
4.48
3.69
1590/1530
In bold are the best of category. Generally if your favorite zip code is under a 4.00, it's doing OK, and under 3.00 is "healthy" (the foreclosures are running under 2.0). But if closed sales are substantially less this year than last, then you can probably figure that the additional 'correction' coming is probably as severe as the difference between the YOY sales.
Jim the Realtor
2 Comments
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Reader Comments (2)
Jim:
Based on your numbers, it looks like judgement day is inevitable in 92009.IMHO, sellers are still not being realistic about pricing and the number of closings 08 vs 07 seems to bear this out.
One thing I notice when I search MLS diligently are the fantastic number of homes in La Costa Valley, Santa Fe Trails, etc. where the owners who bought in 2004 and 05 are listing for much MORE than their purchase price, which seems counter to logical thinking .
Thoughts?
Why is Fallbrook--92028--never in these lists? Just curious....