Thursday, March 13, 2008 at 04:08PM
Foreclosure Agents Update
The signs of improving activity can be seen in the statistics of the foreclosure agents we've been following - the banks are leading the market:
Jun 11 - 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35
Aug 21 - 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44
Sep 20 - 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38
Nov 9 - 486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80
Nov 25 - 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51
Dec 14 - 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03
Jan 15 - 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18
Feb 7 - 482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57
Mar 13 - 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33
Getting close to a 2 to 1 ratio of actives to pendings must mean that the buyers are satisfied with their pricing - and when they're not, the banks keep lowering. It's more proof that if sellers can just get the price right (meaning low enough), there are buying waiting.
Here are the averages on their 236 closed sales in 2008:
SP: $326,854
SP:LP ratio = 96.9%
1,457 sf
107 days on market
91% of the sales were under $500,000
Jim the Realtor
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Reader Comments (8)
Rock-bottom interest rates of mid-January are partly responsible too. They would contribute to a temporary spike in pendings beginning in mid-January. When last people who managed to lock in rates in January and first half of February either close or fall out of escrow, the spike will go away.
This suggests to me that REOs would be approaching the bottom if fixed mortgage rates were still in 5.5% land.
"91% of the sales were under $500,000"
if this is the only stuff that's moving, no wonder the median is falling so badly.
I also take this to mean that the over $500k market must be ballooning up. yes?
This might be harder to get, but any idea how much the homes were marked down by the banks from prior sales or comps?
I love how the banks are squishing down the comps everywhere.
"LP:SP ratio = 96.9%"
Are you saying that these house sold for higher than list on average?
No, that was a typo - sorry. I fixed it.
I'm working on Clive's question.
JtR-
I've solved the housing market problem. I've heard of some of the many ideas floated by politicians on helping the real estate market and our economy.
To define the problem, houses are not selling for the desired prices that would pay off the mortgage amount. The banks won't or can't lend because of the resulting loses and expected reduction in asset prices.
I recently heard the suggestion that the banks write off the amount of negative equity a mortgage has and therefore the owner would be made whole and I guess owe what the house is worth and be incentivized to keep paying the mortagage.
My solution, I know you are excited, is similar but instead getting the government involved in the buying process. I offer that the gov't should underwrite the cost of the purchase for the amount of the house that is overpriced. Therefore, a speculator in Bressi Ranch owes 1.4 million of which they intend to probably repay zippo. The house is "worth" lets say 900k. So money bags Bernanke throws in 500k on the deal and the house sells at the lower price. Lots of real estate people make money, Home Depot makes money again etc. Direct infusion of money into the economy!! Wait could there be fraud? Dismay, so to reduce gov't abuse(I think this is an oxymoron) establish many restrictions that the buyer needs 20% down, can not own other houses, needs 700+ credit, no forclosures recently. Whatever you want so that the buyer is what use to be a classic home buyer looking for shelter and a home. At least the gov't money flows through one of this countries biggest industries paying lots of people and putting them to work.
Oh, and if the house appreciates the gov't gets to recoup it's investment when the house sells again. Quick get the NAR, and Wall Street lobbies over to the politicians. They'll be ready to roll out the "American Dream Family Housing Plan" by the election".
So what do you think?
I think you should pass whatever you're smoking my way.