Relative Market Health
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 at 05:24AM
Jim the Realtor in Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?

We have followed the relationship between the active and pending listings because it's a good reflection of the "health' of the marketplace.

This chart, in alphabetical order, compares today's counts to those from June 30th - note that the supply (actives) have fallen in every area, but the demand (pendings) has fallen further. While June might seem like "the selling season", I'm not factoring in any seasonality, #1 - this is San Diego, #2 - the holidays seem like a long time ago, #3 - if you need to sell, seasons don't matter. (Plus I don't have the individual area numbers from last January):

Area/Zip Code   6/30 Actives/Pendings   1/30 Actives/Pendings
Cardiff
40/13
37/7
Carlsbad
515/115
458/72
CV 92130
157/57
129/31
Del Mar
91/17
77/8
Encinitas
216/53
178/37
Oceanside
901/135
889/123
RSF 92067
220/21
175/15
Solana Beach
54/16
44/7

For easier viewing of the trend, here are the same counts, but dividing the actives by pendings, ranked in order of best-to-worst, currently:

Area/Zip Code   6/30 Jim Ratio   1/30 Jim Ratio
CV 92130
2.75
4.16
Encinitas
4.08
4.81
Cardiff
3.08
5.29
Solana Beach
3.38
6.29
Carlsbad
4.48
6.36
Oceanside
6.67
7.23
RSF 92067
10.43
11.67

Looks like some 'slinky' effect here, Oceanside hasn't deteriorated much, but the higher end areas have - though 92067 continues to be its own world.

With Carmel Valley's pendings almost half of what they were in June, Encinitas might be the new golden child, but both are in the 4s. Here are other areas around the county:

Area or Zip Code   Today's Jim Ratio
Scripps Ranch
3.52
Poway
4.56
92078
4.81
92127
5.50
Vista
7.84
La Jolla
8.32
92101 condos
8.92

Pendings on all charts are those that entered escrow after October 1st.

Article originally appeared on bubbleinfo.com (http://www.bubbleinfo.com/).
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