Wednesday, January 30, 2008 at 05:24AM
Relative Market Health
We have followed the relationship between the active and pending listings because it's a good reflection of the "health' of the marketplace.
This chart, in alphabetical order, compares today's counts to those from June 30th - note that the supply (actives) have fallen in every area, but the demand (pendings) has fallen further. While June might seem like "the selling season", I'm not factoring in any seasonality, #1 - this is San Diego, #2 - the holidays seem like a long time ago, #3 - if you need to sell, seasons don't matter. (Plus I don't have the individual area numbers from last January):
| Area/Zip Code | 6/30 Actives/Pendings | 1/30 Actives/Pendings |
| Cardiff | ||
| Carlsbad | ||
| CV 92130 | ||
| Del Mar | ||
| Encinitas | ||
| Oceanside | ||
| RSF 92067 | ||
| Solana Beach |
For easier viewing of the trend, here are the same counts, but dividing the actives by pendings, ranked in order of best-to-worst, currently:
| Area/Zip Code | 6/30 Jim Ratio | 1/30 Jim Ratio |
| CV 92130 | Encinitas | |
| Cardiff | ||
| Solana Beach | ||
| Carlsbad | ||
| Oceanside | ||
| RSF 92067 |
Looks like some 'slinky' effect here, Oceanside hasn't deteriorated much, but the higher end areas have - though 92067 continues to be its own world.
With Carmel Valley's pendings almost half of what they were in June, Encinitas might be the new golden child, but both are in the 4s. Here are other areas around the county:
| Area or Zip Code | Today's Jim Ratio | ||||||||||
| Scripps Ranch | |||||||||||
| Poway | | 92078 |
92127 |
Vista |
La Jolla |
92101 condos |
|
Pendings on all charts are those that entered escrow after October 1st.
Jim the Realtor
in Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?
|
9 Comments
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Reader Comments (9)
wow, Scripps is actually doing better than CV? and it is the only area that's below 4 on Jim's ratio.
thanks for including 92078 and 92127!
I live in Encinitas / Leucadia and I like it. UNLIKE Carmel Valley, we have a Home Depot, Target, Linens and Things, Office Depot, etc, etc...
When I complained about CV not having any real shops as I just described, the realtor said they did that on purpose to keep CV "Upscale".
I think it's total POOR PLANNING AND INCREDIBLY INCONVENIENT for families needing those stores while raising kids and keeping your home maintained.
F**K CARMEL VALLEY!!
I think the Jim Ratio is a great statistic.
How are new developments factored in? For example: between LC Greens and LC Ridge, there are literally hundreds of homes for sale (you just have to "order" one, and they'll build it for you.) How are these listed on MLS? Isn't it just one listing representing all of the development?
This skews the ratio big-time in Carlsbad and CV. Cardiff, Encinitas, Del Mar, etc., don't have developments. I'd say Encinitas IS the golden child, while markets in Carlsbad and CV are even worse than they appear. Carlsbad builders have already begun to lower their prices, undercutting most resales of similar quality. I see homes in Bressi Ranch priced well below what they originally sold for, and they aren't moving.
CV seems to be holding strong, but for how long? Can the builders in CV maintain their prices? Why hasn't CV cracked? Schools?
As a friend of mine once wisely counseled me, "wait for it".
I'm renting in CV..or waiting in CV more like it. I own a business there and a lot of clients are underwater. I think most people in CV can hang on much longer than most though. I know a knife catcher right off 56 who is renting their place out and have negative cash flow, who knows how many more people are doing this...only matter of time.
Question:
Jim Ratio will be similar between SFR & Condo/Apt in the same area?
Hi Jim,
Any chance you could isolate 92054? West of the 5 in Oceanside -especially South "O" - has a lot more appeal than the rest of the town.
Thanks!
David
I'm not one to bottom-call, but think O'sides "shocking" deterioration is coming to an end soon. It will still deteriorate, but the price movement there has been so swift and violent, that you can now pick up homes at their pre-2001 price, if you watch carefully. You might even be able to get positive cash-flow on some, if everything were to go perfectly (perfect tenant, perfect maintenance, etc.).
Question is, would you want to? I think the crime rate there still has the potential for a lot of upward momentum, if we get a very severe recession/depression.
Robert's "Slinky effect" is about to be set in motion, IMHO.
JtR:
How about the Jim ratio for Downtown Condos?
Thanks.