How are the 'superior homes' doing lately?
These are recent same-house-sales that have closed escrow since August 1st of one-story houses with a 3-car garage, no HOA or Mello-Roos and on at least a quarter-acre lot or more. They are listed in decending-price order, figuring the higher the price, the better the location:
7485 Turnberry,
RSF Farms
5/4/04 - $3,400,000
9/28/07 - $3,275,000
(-3.7%)
16920 Cantaranas, RSF
4/19/04 - $2,400,000
8/24/07 - $2,730,000
(+13.8%)
17605 Calle Mayor,
Fairbanks Ranch
5/16/06 - $2,400,000
9/25/07 - $2,360,000
(-1.7%)
4836 Rancho Viejo,
Rancho Del Mar
5/5/04 - $1,850,000
9/13/07 - $2,100,000
(+13.5%)
14352 Blue Sage, Poway
7/30/04 - $1,540,000
8/21/07 - $1,550,000
(+1%)
12768 Indian Trl, Poway
6/24/04 - $1,230,000
9/21/07 - $1,460,000
(+18.7%)
13859 Country Creek,
Poway
4/16/04 - $1,270,000
9/14/07 - $1,279,000
(+1%)
1409 Dentro De Lomas,
Bonsall
4/13/06 - $1,250,000
10/4/07 - $875,000
(-30% REO)
1751 Sienna Canyon,
Encinitas
1/28/04 - $925,000
9/27/07 - $1,111,000
(+20.2%)
3641 Lago Sereno,
Escondido
3/26/04 - $912,000
8/30/07 - $1,075,000
(+17.9%)
1421 Buckskin, Escondido
11/24/04 - $940,000
9/7/07 - $730,000
(-22.3% REO)
6058 De La Rosa, O-side
5/3/05 - $910,000
9/21/07 - $680,000
(-25.3% REO)
31854 Wrightwood,
Bonsall
10/6/06 - $820,000
8/15/07 - $875,000
(+6.7%)
1512 Via Vista, Fallbrook
3/18/04 - $890,000
10/5/07 - $900,000
(+1.1%)
3708 Cypress, Oceanside
11/10/05 - $790,000
8/31/07 - $580,000
(-26.6% REO)
3263 Hidden Estate,
Escondido
6/29/07 - $680,500
8/10/07 - $690,000
(+1.4%)
3661 Ryan, Escondido
4/26/04 - $669,000
9/28/07 - $635,000
(-5.1%)
772 Rainbow Crest,
Fallbrook
11/8/04 - $565,000
8/3/07 - $595,000 (REO)
(+5.3%)
If you take out the foreclosures, there has been an average appreciation of +6.4% among these superior homes since 2004, and I'm including some area that aren't on the usual beat here. Note that none of the five REOs are from La Jolla to Carlsbad.
The scarcity of this prototype is the primary reason I think they will continue to out-perform the rest of the market. There were only 45 matches out of 1,020 sales (4.4%) in these same areas since August 1st, and these are all 18 that had resold since 2004.
If you can find an one-story house on a medium-sized lot with no HOA or mello-roos and a three-car garage in your area, keep an eye on it and see how it does.