Monday, October 22, 2007 at 07:16AM
Superior Homes in Review
How are the 'superior homes' doing lately?
These are recent same-house-sales that have closed escrow since August 1st of one-story houses with a 3-car garage, no HOA or Mello-Roos and on at least a quarter-acre lot or more. They are listed in decending-price order, figuring the higher the price, the better the location:
7485 Turnberry,
RSF Farms
5/4/04 - $3,400,000
9/28/07 - $3,275,000
(-3.7%)
16920 Cantaranas, RSF
4/19/04 - $2,400,000
8/24/07 - $2,730,000
(+13.8%)
17605 Calle Mayor,
Fairbanks Ranch
5/16/06 - $2,400,000
9/25/07 - $2,360,000
(-1.7%)
4836 Rancho Viejo,
Rancho Del Mar
5/5/04 - $1,850,000
9/13/07 - $2,100,000
(+13.5%)
14352 Blue Sage, Poway
7/30/04 - $1,540,000
8/21/07 - $1,550,000
(+1%)
12768 Indian Trl, Poway
6/24/04 - $1,230,000
9/21/07 - $1,460,000
(+18.7%)
13859 Country Creek,
Poway
4/16/04 - $1,270,000
9/14/07 - $1,279,000
(+1%)
1409 Dentro De Lomas,
Bonsall
4/13/06 - $1,250,000
10/4/07 - $875,000
(-30% REO)
1751 Sienna Canyon,
Encinitas
1/28/04 - $925,000
9/27/07 - $1,111,000
(+20.2%)
3641 Lago Sereno,
Escondido
3/26/04 - $912,000
8/30/07 - $1,075,000
(+17.9%)
1421 Buckskin, Escondido
11/24/04 - $940,000
9/7/07 - $730,000
(-22.3% REO)
6058 De La Rosa, O-side
5/3/05 - $910,000
9/21/07 - $680,000
(-25.3% REO)
31854 Wrightwood,
Bonsall
10/6/06 - $820,000
8/15/07 - $875,000
(+6.7%)
1512 Via Vista, Fallbrook
3/18/04 - $890,000
10/5/07 - $900,000
(+1.1%)
3708 Cypress, Oceanside
11/10/05 - $790,000
8/31/07 - $580,000
(-26.6% REO)
3263 Hidden Estate,
Escondido
6/29/07 - $680,500
8/10/07 - $690,000
(+1.4%)
3661 Ryan, Escondido
4/26/04 - $669,000
9/28/07 - $635,000
(-5.1%)
772 Rainbow Crest,
Fallbrook
11/8/04 - $565,000
8/3/07 - $595,000 (REO)
(+5.3%)
If you take out the foreclosures, there has been an average appreciation of +6.4% among these superior homes since 2004, and I'm including some area that aren't on the usual beat here. Note that none of the five REOs are from La Jolla to Carlsbad.
The scarcity of this prototype is the primary reason I think they will continue to out-perform the rest of the market. There were only 45 matches out of 1,020 sales (4.4%) in these same areas since August 1st, and these are all 18 that had resold since 2004.
If you can find an one-story house on a medium-sized lot with no HOA or mello-roos and a three-car garage in your area, keep an eye on it and see how it does.
Jim the Realtor
in Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?
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Response: Shouting, 'Fire'The online coverage of the California fires shows continued innovation in how the news is being reported....
Reader Comments (7)
Some of these houses might not be there tomorrow.
Fire comments, pictures, links are welcome.
For example, what streets in particular are burning in Poway and RB?
Jim,
You're making some false logic assumptions.
There is an unobliged sale price bias inherent in real estate sales. If it is not a forced sale, it will sell for more than the last price. That's pretty much a given. Which is exactly what your post just stated.
I'm not trying to be offensive, but my first response was, "No duh".
The fact that housing prices for compusory sellers are lower is more a function of their financial background than the properties they chose.
If people with poor financial acumen and little financial buffers bought more expensive houses, they would also have lost value due to forced sales. Not surprisingly, they didn't. They bought entry-level homes. This is an important point, because they are the plankton of the housing market. Those who bought 1M homes sold 600K homes. Those who bought 600K homes sold 400K homes. Those who bought 400K homes sold 200K homes to our friends the "cannon fodder" (as Robert lovingly refers to them as) who were added to our 65% home-ownership society pushing us to nearly 70% ownership.
We'll likely give a substantial portion of that back, if not more.
It'll take some time, but sooner or later, the bigger fish die when there's no more fish or plankton to eat. We're just in the 2nd inning, and there's a lot more innings left to see what happens.
Chuck Ponzi
www.socalbubble.com
No, there is more going on here. Fact is, rich are getting richer. These people, for the most part, are not going to get hit very hard. In fact, they will probably continue to do well as others fall by the wayside.
Nothing short of a radical change to our economic system will change that, and the working class will get no wage traction until the rate of immigration is reduced.
Whether having the working class get wage traction is a good or bad thing you can decide.
How come 3708 shows up Zillow as sold for 514,000.00 (on 6/11/07)
There is house close by 3672 Cypress Rd on Zillow for sale at $549,000.00. Same sq.ft.
false logic assumptions?
I won't be surprised if more bears will try different ways to spin it, but I put this here because the general consensus among bears is that the whole market is going down together. These show that there is at least one segment of the market that has held its own, so far.
The theories seem logical, do you mind if I just put up some anecdotal evidence to the contrary?
I'll agree that the primo stuff might be levitating, but to that I'll submit the basic law of supply-and-demand.
Here's how I look at it:
Supply = 5%
Demand = 50%
I'm on the front lines, talking to buyers every day, and the baby boomers (likely to be the biggest group who can and will buy) want to get out of their two-story and settle into a one-story.
The other comments on the previous post seem to concur - the demand is strong, especially in the nice areas like La Jolla to Carlsbad.
Peter,
The $514,000 was the foreclosing bank's price.
The other active listing at $549,000 is a short sale, with loans totaling $739,000. Buyer's agents are avoiding those like the plague - to convince a bank to eat $250,000 takes months, and buyers and agents don't want to wait.
There is also a 3,210 sf REO for sale on that street for $600,900 for a two-story.
Were remodeling/additions a factor in the homes that went up in price?
Or perhaps 2005/2006 were the peak prices, so there is a drop off that peak, but still a gain from 2004 prices.
My data also shows the superior homes are holding up better. Demand is high in certain zips, for certain types of homes, as Jim has described.
Waiting for those homes to fall in price could take many years. As long as high end buyers have their high paying jobs and access to mortgages, and the number of foreclosures is low because they were not bought by subprime borrowers, they are more insulated from the downturn (just like Tiffany and Neiman Marcus is still increasing sales while Walmart and Target are struggling).